We are only a few days away from the results of the West Bengal Assembly elections, but the exit polls in the state have left many complexities. A major pollster completely beat forecasts for Bengal while releasing exit poll numbers for other states, while the state’s chief minister called on her staff to guard the EVM’s powerful rooms.
Most exit polls in West Bengal have predicted that the BJP will win the Assembly elections when the results are announced on May 4. Prime Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) has rejected poll predictions, though some expect the party to retain power and return for a fourth term.
Here’s what’s happened in Bengal since polls closed after the second phase of voting on April 29.
West Bengal exit poll puzzle
Skips the main pollster
Axis My India, one of India’s top pollsters, skipped publishing its poll forecasts after exiting West Bengal. Saying that voters have remained silent about their choice.
A statement issued on behalf of Axis My India founder Pradeep Gupta said the reason behind not publishing exit polls from Bengal stems from the fact that a majority of voters, 70 per cent to be precise, refuse to participate in exit polls.
The high degree of hesitation and rejection rate “exceeded historical norms and introduced a high degree of non-response bias,” the pollster said.
Most polls predict a BJP victory, with two extremes
Matrez and P Mark suggest BJP will win in Bengal, ending Mamata’s 15-year rule. The Poll Diary poll indicated that the BJP won between 142 and 171 seats, while the TMC trailed with 99 and 127 seats.
The JVC voter poll predicted a tough contest between the two camps, with the TMC expected to get 131-152 seats, while the BJP would get 138-159 seats. Chanakya today also predicted that the BJP will win nearly 200 seats.
However, exit polls by People’s Pulse and Janmat predict a TMC wave in Bengal, giving Mamata a fourth term. While the People’s Pulse Party gave the TMC 177 to 187 seats and the BJP 95 to 110 seats, Janmaat predicted a bigger sweep for the incumbent, predicting 195 to 205 seats for the TMC and 80 to 90 seats for the BJP.
The 2021 polls got it wrong
In 2021, forecasts were sharply divided, with agencies providing mixed results. CVoter predicted that the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) would comfortably retain power with 158 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was estimated at 115 seats. On the other hand, the Republic-CNX poll flipped the script, giving the BJP an advantage of 143 seats and putting the TMC at 133 seats.
The India Axis proposed a tougher race, projecting the TMC between 130 and 156 seats and the BJP between 134 and 160 seats – effectively suggesting that neither party might cross the 148-seat majority mark in the 294-member assembly.
When the results were announced, the result differed significantly from most expectations. The TMC achieved a landslide victory by winning 215 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party won only 77 seats.
The elections, held in eight phases, saw a strong challenge by the BJP against Banerjee, while the CPI(M), Congress-ISF alliance added a third angle in several constituencies but failed to make a significant impact.
EVM drama is high after Mamata’s invitation
High drama erupted in Kolkata after the TMC made a huge rigging allegation over the opening of polls at the EVM strong polling room on Wednesday, after Mamata Banerjee called on party workers to guard the EVM strong rooms.
The row began with the TMC candidate from Belighata Assembly constituency, Kunal Ghosh, and party leader Shashi Banga, who sat at a dharna (sit-in) in Kolkata, alleging that the Election Commission and the BJP opened polls in strong rooms in the absence of concerned stakeholders.
The TMC later said in a statement that party chief Mamata Banerjee would personally visit the site to “assess the situation”.
This comes after Banerjee He called on party workers to stay awake all night to guard the EVM strong rooms.
“The BJP has played the end game. The stock markets would have crashed if the real numbers were published. People need to stick together, monitor the count closely… and stay awake all night,” she said, adding that she would guard the EVM rooms herself if necessary.
“They are planning to swap the electronic voting machines… Until I hold a press conference and announce, don’t leave the counting tables… They may change the data in the computers, give us our numbers for the BJP and BJP, and I will go myself to the counting hall, and I can do it as a candidate. You have gone through a lot. Please bear more to save Bengal,” she said.
