A day after Axis My India released exit poll forecasts for four assemblies, its founder Pradeep Gupta announced that the forecasts will not be published for Bengal this time.
The reason, according to Gupta, is due to reasons affecting the sampling methodology, which makes the survey incomplete.
All but one pollster showed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead in Bengal, ending the 15-year rule of Prime Minister Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress.
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Polls, including Matrize, P-Marq, Poll Diary, JVC and Janmat Polls, have shown that TMC has an advantage. Peoples Pulse is the only pollster to show that Mamata has an advantage.
Bengal is a tough state for pollsters to crack, and the majority of exit poll predictions for the 2021 Assembly elections have proven wrong.
Why Axis My India is not releasing the Bengal exit poll
A statement issued on behalf of Axis My India founder Pradeep Gupta said the reason behind not publishing exit polls from Bengal stems from the fact that a majority of voters, 70 per cent to be precise, refuse to participate in exit polls.
Exit poll forecasts are based on a small sample size collected from voters’ responses outside voting booths across demographic groups and geographic locations to calculate trends before official results are released.
Also read: BJP’s continuity in Assam, its debut in Bengal, Vijay’s magic in Tamil Nadu: Complete list of poll results
The high degree of hesitation and rejection rate “exceeded historical norms and introduced a high degree of non-response bias,” the pollster said.
Such limitations are methodologically harmful, she said, and the accuracy of the survey is skewed by the silence of participants.
A team of 80 surveyors traveled across 294 constituencies in Bengal and covered a total of 13,250 participants, the statement said.
In an interview with NDTV, Gupta referred to the “fear environment” and said, “We have seen that when 70 to 80 per cent of people are not willing to talk to us. So the methodology of our sampling process is not working properly. So we decided that it would be better in such a situation not to announce the survey.”
Also read: “Frigging polls, staying up all night”: Mamata Banerjee calls for guarding EVMs after Bengal forecast
What did the exit poll data say for Bengal?
People’s Pulse predicted a TMC surge in Bengal giving a fourth term to Mamata. The pollster gave 177 to 187 seats to the TMC, while the BJP expected to win between 95 and 110 seats.
Matrez and P Mark suggested that the BJP would win Bengal, ending Mamata’s 15-year rule. The Poll Diary poll indicated that the BJP won between 142 and 171 seats, while the TMC trailed with 99 and 127 seats.
The JVC voter poll predicted a tough contest between the two camps, with the TMC expected to get 131-152 seats, while the BJP would get 138-159 seats.
