Two heavyweight India bloc voters – the Trinamool Congress and the DMK – failed to protect their turf, further shrinking the opposition’s footprint after the latest round of Assembly polls. Mamata Banerjee’s TMC was beaten by the BJP in West Bengal and the DMK tasted defeat in Tamil Nadu. In contrast, the BJP expanded further into eastern India: the party achieved a historic victory in West Bengal and retained power in Assam.
The Left parties, another component of India’s beleaguered group, had no state government for the first time since 1977 after losing Kerala to the Congress. There are several implications of these results, including, but not limited to, the NDA’s upper hand in next year’s presidential election; The growing political influence of the ruling regime and the decline of one of the regional parties in the very important National Development Council.
The India bloc, which began in 2023 to pose a joint challenge to the BJP, now has only six state governments left, including four Congress-led ones – Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh. The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha have two governments in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand, respectively. The Congress announced that Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi “spoke with Shri Mamata Banerjee and Shri MK Stalin regarding the election results. He also spoke with TVK President Shri Vijay and congratulated him on the party’s performance.”
More direct confrontation between BJP and Congress soon?
Interestingly, Manindra Nath Thakur, associate professor at the Center for Policy Studies, believes the results indicate a new shift in Indian politics with a more direct competition between the BJP and the Congress with less room for regional groups.
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“I think the space for regional parties is diminishing and gradually, whatever opposition there is, it has to be led by Congress. Trinamool and DMK have lost power. Even the Aam Aadmi Party is declining fast. Ultimately, it will lead to a Congress versus BJP dualism, and regional parties will have to come to terms with Congress,” Thakur said. “I also see the trust of the Muslim population in regional parties slowly eroding,” Thakur said. If the Congress Party can win some states in northern India, I think Muslims will rally behind the Congress Party as a practical alternative to the BJP.”
What Congress thinks
Not everyone is convinced that will happen. A senior Congress leader said such a conclusion may be premature. In fact, the Congress’ performance against the BJP, directly or as part of an alliance, in state elections since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls is nothing to write home about. However, Kerala’s victory means that the Congress now has four chief ministers.
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“The Indian National Congress expresses its profound gratitude to the people of Kerala for giving the United Democratic Front the opportunity to act with a resounding majority. We realize our responsibility and pledge to live up to the trust reposed in us by the people of Kerala,” Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said.
But he admitted that other results were disappointing.
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“Except for Kerala, the election results elsewhere fell short of our expectations. However, we are not discouraged or depressed. We are engaged in an ideological struggle. The path of struggle for democracy and truth against tyranny and falsehood is always long and arduous. However, we will continue to move forward with unwavering determination and unwavering resolve.”
