The Congress-led United Democratic Front’s incursion into Kerala has been particularly evident in areas of the state with large minority populations. The United Democratic Front had a vote share of 51.9% and 50.2% in constituencies in areas with large Muslim and Christian populations in the state respectively, compared to 42.1% in the rest of the state.
Because religious data on seats are not available, this analysis uses district-level 2011 Census data as a proxy, with seats held in districts where Muslims or Christians represent more than 30% of the population. This is an imperfect measure of voter demographics, but it helps test whether the UDF’s gains have also been concentrated in places where Kerala’s two largest minority communities are demographically significant. Muslims represent 26.6% of Kerala’s population and Christians 18.4%, according to the 2011 census.
The Muslim-important region consists of Kasaragod, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts, which together have 34 Assembly seats. The United Democratic Front won 31 seats, leaving the Liberal Democratic Party with only three seats. Malappuram was a complete sweep for the UDF, with the alliance winning all 16 seats. Kozhikode also moved strongly towards the United Democratic Front, which won 11 seats out of 13. The LDF’s losses in this belt are also visible in the vote share. Across these 34 constituencies, the LDF’s vote share has fallen by an average of 7.7 percentage points as of 2021, while the LDF’s vote share has risen by 7.6 percentage points. The United Democratic Front improved its vote share in every seat in this group, while the LDF declined in 32 of the 34 seats.
(See chart 1)
The United Democratic Front’s biggest gains came in the Muslim-important areas of Elathur, where its vote share rose by 16.2 percentage points, followed by Nilambur, Tirurangadi and Manjeshwar. The result in Tavanur was also politically notable. The Congress Party’s candidate, Joy, a Christian leader, won in Malappuram, an area where Muslims form an overwhelming majority. Reports described this as a rare cross-community result in a seat where the United Democratic Front’s victory was not simply about the candidate’s identity matching the prevailing religious profile of the area. The pattern was similar in Christian-important districts, including Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta, which together have 33 Assembly seats. The UDF won 32 of them. It swept Ernakulam and Kottayam, won four of five seats in Idukki, and four of five in Pathanamthitta. LDF is left with only Kony in this entire belt.
Here too the shift in vote share was significant. The LDF’s vote share declined by an average of 8.1 percentage points as of 2021, while the LDF’s vote share increased by 9.1 percentage points. The United Democratic Front improved in 31 out of 33 seats, while the LDF declined in 32 seats. The sharpest swing came in Udumbanchula, where MLA and senior Communist Party of India leader MM Mani was not nominated this time in favor of K.S. Puttupalli, Ettumanur, Kochi, Vaibne, Perumbavoor and Thrikkakara districts also saw gains from the United Democratic Front in double digits.
The result also changed the balance within Kerala Congress politics. The LDF-allied Kerala Congress (M) bagged a blank result, including a defeat for Jose in Pala, while the UDF-allied Kerala Congress from the BJ Joseph camp won seven seats.
This is politically significant because both come from the same long and fragmented Kerala Congress tradition, which began in 1964 as a breakaway from the Indian National Congress, and has significant influence in Christian-dominated areas of the state. The Kerala Congress (M) was formed by K M Mani in 1979 after splitting from the parent Kerala Congress, but after several splits, the Mani and Joseph groups were united in 2010 when the Kerala Congress faction led by P G Joseph left the LDF and merged with the Kerala Congress (M). The rivalry was reopened after KM Mani’s death in 2019, when a power tussle between Jose K Mani and PJ Joseph divided the party once again.
(See chart 2)
In sum, in both Muslim-important northern Kerala and Christian-important central Kerala, the UDF expanded its vote share sharply, while the erosion of the LDF was widespread and persistent.
