New Delhi: Daytime temperatures this summer (April-June) are likely to be below or normal in most parts of India, the India Meteorological Department said in its updated forecast on Tuesday. It warned that many parts of the country may also experience severe thunderstorms in April.
While mild weather should provide some relief to customers, as well as lower energy demand amid the war-induced energy crisis in West Asia, a wet April could hurt harvest-ready crops, some of which were already affected by western disturbances in the second half of March.
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In what could have a greater impact on the agricultural sector, the agency expected an 80% possibility of the El Niño phenomenon occurring in the second half due to the monsoon winds, which could deplete the rainy season.
In its forecast, the IMD said that many parts of the east and northeast of the country, as well as eastern parts of central India and its adjoining peninsular region, may see hotter days.
The IMD also added that night temperatures are likely to be above normal in most parts of the country except some parts of Maharashtra and Telangana where normal temperatures are likely to be below normal till June.
Below normal daytime temperatures and higher night temperatures are expected mainly due to the possibility of rain, thunderstorm activity and cloudy nights and days. Cloud cover makes nights warmer by trapping heat radiated from the Earth’s surface. The Met Office forecast 112% above normal rainfall during the month of April; The average rainfall, based on average rainfall from 1971 to 2020, is 39.2 mm.
“Intense and widespread thunderstorm activity is likely in different parts of April. People should be careful especially those working outdoors. Three western disturbances are expected to impact till April 9 and will move eastward causing thunderstorm activity. There are easterly waves over the peninsula region as well causing thunderstorm activity,” said M Mohapatra, Director General, Disaster and Emergency Management Authority. March, but now we can say that there are likely to be more heatwave days in May and June compared to April.”During April, heatwave days are likely to be higher than normal in many parts of coastal districts of Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh and isolated areas of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka, the IMD said.
El Nino approaches in July
The IMD said that neutral El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently prevail over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions are likely to persist until June. After that, the probability of El Niño conditions developing gradually increases. There is a 62% chance of El Niño occurring from June to July and August, and an 80% chance of El Niño occurring from August to September and October.
El Niño years usually bring weak monsoons and harsh summers to India. Monsoons are primarily caused by intense heating of the land compared to the sea during the summer.
Asked whether normal to below-normal temperatures this summer would affect the monsoon, Mohapatra said factors other than the heating of the Earth also have an important role to play. He added that the IMD will release the preliminary monsoon forecast around mid-April. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates that these neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist through the April to June season and beyond. For eastern and northeastern India, the IMD has warned of significant heat stress.
