The monsoon is expected to rebound in large parts of northwest and northeastern India this week, but the respite may come too late for many rain-dependent kharif crops, according to experts. Latest agriculture data show that pulses, coarse grains, cotton and oilseeds continue to lag behind last year’s pace despite improved rainfall. Many of these crops also remain well below their normal area at this point in the season.
As of July 17, farmers had planted 65.8 million hectares, down about 6% from 70 million hectares the previous year. While the gap narrowed from earlier this month as rainfall temporarily improved, the latest crop data suggests the recovery remains uneven, with rain-fed crops continuing to lag.
Crop-level sowing data show that stress is concentrated in rain-fed crops. Pulses emerged as the biggest concern, as they were planted on 6.9 million hectares, 15.1% less than last year. Coarse grains covered 11.9 million hectares, 11.2% less than last year, largely due to a decline in bajra and maize cultivation.
Oilseeds were grown on more than 14.7 million hectares, 5.5% less than last year, with soybean area decreasing by 4.5% year-on-year. Cotton area was 9.3 million hectares, approximately 6% less than the previous year. But Rice has almost caught up to the pace she achieved last year. The area planted with rice reached 16.6 million hectares, only 0.8% less than the same period last year.
Agricultural policy experts say the delayed monsoon may have already caused irreversible losses to some crops. “The window for acreage recovery is closing. At this point, most of the shortage in pulses, oilseeds and coarse grains is likely to be permanent. Today’s farmers are choosing crops based on income security as much as on climate suitability. Although these crops can withstand lower rainfall, a delayed monsoon makes them more financially risky, discouraging farmers from expanding crop acreage. Unless rainfall improves significantly and remains constant, I do not expect a significant recovery this season,” he said. Sudhir Kumar Suthar, Assistant Professor at the Center for Policy Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, and founder of the Rural and Agricultural India Network.
Some crops have bucked the broader trend. Sugarcane area increased by 1.5% compared to last year, while sunflower, jute, mista, kulthi and niger also recorded modest gains, although together they account for a relatively small share of total kharif area.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an active phase of monsoon over northwest and northeast India over the next four to five days, with widespread rainfall expected across Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. However, weak rainfall activity is expected to continue over west-central and peninsular India throughout most of the week, areas that account for a significant share of soybean, cotton and pulse cultivation.
As of July 20, the country recorded 263.2 mm of rain compared to 342.1 mm, putting the seasonal deficit at 23%. Meteorologists expect the deficit to shrink further this week before rainfall activity weakens again towards the end of the week.
Next week is likely to be decisive. While the expected recovery in rainfall could help narrow the overall gap to agriculture, particularly in northern and eastern India, a weak monsoon again after that could limit further recovery in rain-fed crops that depend on timely rainfall in July to complete sowing and establish healthy crop stands, according to Suthar.
