Global warming has accelerated in the past 10 years with a new study concluding with 98% certainty. While scientists have begun to notice signs of a rapid acceleration in rising temperatures in recent years, this is the first study to say so with scientific confidence.
After accounting for known natural influences such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions and solar variations on global temperature, the research team discovered a statistically significant acceleration in the warming trend.
Over the past 10 years, the estimated rate of warming is about 0.35 degrees Celsius per decade, depending on the data set, compared to just under 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade on average from 1970 to 2015, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) said Friday evening.
This latest rate is higher than any previous decade since the beginning of automated recordings in 1880, the authors stressed.
HT reported on January 15 that global temperatures over the past three years (2023-2025) have averaged more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (C) above pre-industrial levels, the first three-year period to have crossed the threshold, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said.
Berkeley Earth, which focuses on analyzing global temperature data, warned that temperature increases from 2023 to 2025 appear to have deviated significantly from the previously largely linear trend. The temperature rise from 2023 to 2025 appears to have deviated significantly from the previous trend. If we assume global warming was continuing at the same rate as it was during the 50-year period 1970-2019, the journey from 2023 to 2025 would be by far the largest deviation from that trend, Berkeley Earth said.
“We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015,” said Grant Foster, a US statistician and co-author of the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Read also: Global temperatures exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold for the first time in 3 years in a row
Importantly, the study also concluded that if the rate of warming over the past 10 years
As these years continue, the Paris Agreement’s warming limit of 1.5°C will be breached by 2030.
“Stopping this trend is in our hands: studies suggest that global warming will stop by the time humanity reaches zero carbon dioxide emissions, but it is difficult to reverse. However, in the current political climate, it is very likely that warming will continue at its rapid pace or even accelerate further. This is quite clear: if the rate of warming of the past 10 years continues, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit will be violated by 2030,” the study said.
Natural short-term fluctuations in global temperatures caused by El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles can mask changes in the rate of long-term global warming. In the data analysis, which relies on measurement data, the researchers work with five large global temperature data sets (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5).
“The adjusted data show an acceleration in global warming since 2015 with a statistical certainty of more than 98%, which is consistent with all datasets examined and independent of the chosen analysis method,” explained Stefan Rahmstorf, a researcher at PIK and lead author of the study.
The study comes at a time of great turmoil in climate action.
The United States withdrew from 66 international organizations and agreements on Wednesday, its most significant exit from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is likely to deal a devastating blow to global efforts to address the climate crisis, HT reported in January. Moreover, on February 12, the EPA rescinded its “risk findings” for global warming gases. The 2009 “Hazard Findings” concluded that a range of greenhouse gases pose a threat to public health. Now, the Iranian conflict has also become a distraction from urgent efforts to reduce emissions, experts note.
“Beyond its brutal human costs, this latest disruption shows once again that dependence on fossil fuels leaves economies, companies, markets and people at the mercy of every new conflict or trade policy,” Simon Steele, UN climate change executive secretary, said last week. “But there is a clear solution to this mess in fossil fuel costs – renewables are now cheaper, safer and faster to market, making them the clear path to energy security and sovereignty.”
“How quickly global warming continues ultimately depends on how quickly global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels can be reduced to zero,” Stefan Rahmstorf said in a statement.
