Tamil Nadu politics has been bipolar for decades, with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) ruling the state since 1977. Actor-turned-politician Vijay is trying to mitigate that this time, by playing on an old formula – turning a box office success into a big hit at the polls.
But the record shows that even when other parties enter the fray in Tamil Nadu, the contest is always between two alliances, one of which is led by DMK and the other by AIADMK. These parties always received a combined vote share of more than 70%, and they also worked to integrate smaller parties into their ranks.
Over the past fifty years or so, The AIADMK has been in power for 31 years, while the DMK, the larger of the two, has been in government for 18 years. But who was in power? Tamil Nadu, the state has become entrenched in bipolar politics.
Vijay and his party TVK have chosen to try to become a third front. His attempt is brave, but not unique.
There are other states in India that have traditionally been bipolar, Punjab being a prime example of this, in addition to the recent turmoil.
Until entry Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) In Punjab, state politics has oscillated between the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Congress. The duopoly was disrupted to some extent only in 2017, when the AKP won a large number of seats in the assembly elections.
Five years later, the duopoly of the SAD (as well as the BJP) and the Congress was completely dismantled when the Arvind Kejriwal-led group stormed to power in 2022. It was the first time since 1966 that a non-Akalis, non-Congress government had been formed in the state.
Actor-turned-politician Bhagwant Mann became CM. Actors turning to politics in the South have become more prominent, including the DMK, AIADMK, and other parties.
As for the APC, before Punjab, it also succeeded in breaking the bipolarity in Delhi, overthrowing the Congress and then ruling for ten years before losing to the Bharatiya Janata Party last year. Bi-polarity has returned to Delhi since then, with the League now one of the two poles alongside the BJP.
Coming back to Tamil Nadu, which goes to the polls on April 23, is the bipolarity between the DMK and AIADMK still intact?
Vijay factor
Tamil Nadu’s bipolar politics faces potential turmoil as Vijay positions his team Tamilaga Vettri Kazagham (TVK) as the ‘lone warrior’.
Vijay, also known as Thalapathi (leader), has sought to appeal to the roughly 20% of voters considered neutral or disillusioned with the current regime.
He pitted himself against both the Dravidian majors, the ruling DMK, as well as the opposition AIADMK. He has insisted that he has nothing to do with the BJP which is allied with the AIADMK.
Analysts point out that the AIADMK faces the greatest danger, as Vijay’s base overlaps with traditional AIADMK supporters and those seeking an alternative to the DMK, led by Prime Minister M K Stalin.
According to federal analysts, Vijay may be acting as a “vote cutter.” Experts are divided over who is hurting more: some believe he is eroding the DMK’s base among young people and minorities, while others argue that his one-man gamble primarily splits the anti-incumbency vote, which could give the ruling DMK an edge.
“2026 will see another win for the party like the Tamil Nadu polls in 1967 and 1977,” Vijay said during his election campaign.
“2026 will be an election as big as the 1967 and 1977 elections. We are sure of that. In these elections, the new parties won by defeating the existing strong parties. The logic behind their victory is simple: they have met the people of Tamil Nadu. I want to repeat what Annadurai said: ‘Go to the people, live with the people, learn from the people, plan with the people, and start with what they know.’ If you do this right, victory is certain. “We can win from the people,” he said. By bringing people together.”
On the other hand, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin often portrayed Vijay as a ‘novice politician’ who lacked understanding of the decades of effort required to build the state’s progress.
“All the new politicians have emerged saying: ‘We will destroy Tamil Nadu!’ But what will they change? Will they reverse Tamil Nadu’s progress and pull it back?” Stalin said during the campaign.
Senior BJP leader K Annamalai acknowledged Vijay’s rise, but also had a theory.
“He will get a 10% vote share… and will cut off votes from all political parties, including us. However, the NDA will form the government,” Annamalai said.
