The country’s monsoon rainfall is likely to reach 90 percent of the long-period average this year, lower than the 92 percent forecast by the India Meteorological Department in April.
Weak El Niño conditions are expected to develop in June and strengthen in the second half of the season, the IMD said on Friday.
“The average southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to reach 90% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +4 percent, indicating that rainfall is less than or likely less than normal,” the IMD presented at a press conference on Friday.
Among the regions, northeast India is expected to see normal rains, while northwest, central and south peninsular India is expected to see below-normal monsoon rains, according to the IMD.
Previous IMD forecasts
In the first phase of its long-range forecast for the monsoon season in April, the International Meteorological Institute predicted that India is likely to see a “below normal” monsoon this year. Rainfall is expected to reach 92 percent of the long period average (LPA), with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent, the institute said in a forecast that flagged the challenges facing the country’s rain-fed agriculture and broader rural economy.
The average monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole during the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm, as reported by HT earlier.
The IMD spatial distribution indicates that below normal monsoon rainfall is likely in many parts of the country except some areas in northeast, northwest and south peninsular India, where normal to above normal rainfall is likely.
The new forecast of even lower monsoon rains than previous forecasts has major economic implications for India, which relies heavily on agriculture. According to the agriculture ministry, 51 per cent of India’s cultivated area, accounting for 40 per cent of production, is rain-fed, HT reported earlier. With 47% of the country’s population relying on agriculture for their livelihood, a below-par monsoon could dampen consumption in rural areas and push up food prices in a year when conflict in West Asia threatens to pose a greater threat to the availability of energy and fertilizer – critical agricultural inputs.
The last time India received “below normal” rainfall was in 2023, also an El Niño year, when rainfall over the country as a whole during the monsoon season was 94% of the LPA.
El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season especially during July, August and September, according to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS).
