While exit polls have given unanimous forecasts for Kerala and Assam, an interesting contest is expected in Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
Exit polls in four states and a union territory showed mixed results: continuity in Assam, a possible change in West Bengal and Kerala, and a surprise entry in Tamil Nadu.
The post-poll forecast was released soon after voting for the second phase of the West Bengal elections ended on Wednesday evening. The final results will be announced once the counting begins on May 4 (Monday).
Follow the latest updates on exit poll results
The forecast for high-risk states comes even as voter expectations are higher this time with Tamil Nadu and Bengal recording record turnout.
Bengal exit poll results?
West Bengal has been a tough state for Prime Minister Mamata Banerjee’s rivals, and equally tough for pollsters. To be sure, most exit polls were wrong in the 2021 House elections.
Even in 2026, a majority of pollsters, including Matriz, B-Mark, Poll Diaries and GVC, projected the BJP to have a majority. On the other hand, Peoples Pulse and Janmat Polls have predicted incumbency support for TMC for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Axis My India said it would not publish its Bengal poll forecast, citing lack of response from voters.
People’s Pulse has predicted a tide for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in Bengal giving Mamata a fourth term. The TMC poll has allocated 177 to 187 seats, while the BJP expects to win between 95 and 110 seats.
Matrez and P Mark suggested that the BJP would win Bengal, ending Mamata’s 15-year rule. The Matrez gave the BJP 146-161 seats and the TMC 125-140 seats. P-Marq predicted that the BJP would get 150-175 seats and 118-138 seats for the TMC.
According to the poll note, the BJP is expected to get 142-171 seats, while the TMC is trailing by 99-127 seats. The JVC voter poll predicted a tough contest between the two camps, with the TMC expected to get 131-152 seats, while the BJP would get 138-159 seats.
All pollsters gave a maximum of 5 seats to Congress and up to 10 seats to others. The left front has also been reduced to a maximum of three seats.
Polling in Bengal was held in two phases: the first phase was held on 152 seats on April 23 and the second phase on 142 seats tomorrow.
DMK wave will continue in Tamil Nadu?
Tamil Nadu is headed for an interesting contest, with most pollsters predicting another term for the DMK-led alliance. However, the election could also result in an upset with actor Vijay winning, similar to M G Ramachandran’s win in 1977.
Axis My India forecast shows an advantage for Vijay’s TVK leading in 98-120 seats. It also showed that the DMK alliance got 92-100 seats, while the AIADMK-led NDA got 22-32 seats.
Vijay was also the top choice of voters as the preferred face of the Chief Minister in the state with an approval rating of 37 per cent. MK Stalin received a support rating of 35 percent.
Matrez gave preference to the DMK alliance by 122-132 seats, while the AIADMK alliance got 87-100 seats. TVK was expected to get 10-12 seats.
P-Marq showed similar trends with the DMK-led alliance winning 125-145, AIADMK+ leading by 65-85 and TVK leading by 16-26 seats.
According to the People’s Pulse exit poll, the DMK-INC+ alliance is leading in 125-145 seats, the NDA in 65-80 seats, and TVK in 18-24 seats.
JVC was the only pollster who predicted that the AIADMK alliance would win Tamil Nadu. It gave 128-147 seats to the NDA, 75-95 to the DMK and 67-81 to the TVK. Kamakhya Analytics has predicted a triangular contest between AIADMK, DMK and TVK with a slight advantage for the DMK alliance.
Pro for office in Assam?
Assam was the only state where all pollsters showed another term for the Himanta Biswa Sarma government.
Axis My India predicted a BJP sweep in Assam, with the NDA getting 88-100 seats, while the Congress-led alliance got 24-36 seats.
According to Matrisi, the NDA alliance is expected to get 85-95 seats, the Congress alliance is expected to get 25-32 seats, and the others are likely to get a maximum of 12 seats.
The Peoples Pulse show also showed that the BJP has an advantage. While Himanta’s alliance was expected to win 68-72 seats, the Congress-led alliance was expected to win 22-26 seats.
Projections by P-Marq, Poll Diary, JVC and Kamakhya Analytics showed the NDA leading in at least 80 seats, which marks the halfway mark, while the Congress was limited to a maximum of 40 seats.
The Axis My India poll also showed that 48 per cent voters preferred Himanta Biswa Sarma as Prime Minister, while Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi had an approval rating of 32 per cent.
Kerala to follow its track record?
Kerala is one of the few states that has seen a rotating government in every alternate session. Although the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF government managed to break the streak, repeating a rare back-to-back win in 2021, the state seems to be following its earlier trend.
All exit polls showed the Congress-led United Democratic Front winning the state, ending the 10-year rule of the Vijayan government.
Axis My India expected the Congress-led alliance to get 78-90 seats, while the LDF was expected to get 49-62 seats.
Matrez expected the United Democratic Front Party to obtain 70-75 seats, the Liberal Democratic Front Party 60-65 seats, and the National Democratic Rally Party to obtain between 3-5 seats. On the other hand, the People’s Pulse Party expected the Congress Alliance to obtain between 75 to 85 seats, while the Liberal Democracy Party would obtain between 55 to 65 seats.
BMark’s forecasts showed that the Congress bloc would get 70-75 seats, and the Liberal Democratic Party would get 60-65 seats. The Joint Coordination Committee expected the United Democratic Front to get 72-84 seats, while the Liberal Democratic Front was expected to get 52-61 seats.
It was expected that the National Democratic Rally would obtain a maximum of 7 seats.
Rangasamy-led NDA to sweep Puducherry?
Pollsters have expected the NDA-led All India NR Congress (AINRC) to win in Puducherry. The People’s Pulse forecast shows the NDA alliance getting 15-19 seats in the 30-assembly union district, while the DMK-led alliance gets between 6-8 seats.
According to Axis My India, the NDA is expected to get between 16 and 20 seats, while the NDA is expected to win between 16 and 20 seats. The DMK-Congress alliance won between 6 and 8 seats. Vijay’s TVK could get 2-4 seats.
Kamakhya Analytics was expected to get 17-24 seats, while DMK-Congress was expected to get 4-7 seats. TVK was expected to get 1-2 seats.
Voting was held in Puducherry across 30 assembly constituencies on April 9. The Congress is contesting as part of an alliance with the DMK and CPI, while the All India NR Congress (AINRC), BJP and AIADMK are together.
Majid Alam is a senior content producer at the New Delhi-based Hindustan Times. He currently heads the online office shifts and manages the homepage apart from writing, editing and organizing articles. Majed has more than six years of experience in the field of journalism, and has navigated national, political and international news. His work focuses primarily on Indian heartland politics, government policy, and South Asia. He also writes about US and European policies towards India. Before joining Hindustan Times, Majid worked at ABP LIVE as Chief Copy Editor and at News18, where he ran the World and Explainers divisions. His articles have appeared in Dialogue Earth, The Quint, BMJ, The Diplomat and Outlook India. Majid has a keen interest in using data to tell stories. Majid holds a master’s degree in convergent journalism from Jamia Millia Islamia. He was awarded an Erasmus+ scholarship to study International Affairs at Sciences Po in Paris in 2020. He is also part of OCEANS, the Erasmus+ researcher exchange alumni network. He currently holds the position of National Representative (India) in OCEANS Network. Aside from journalism, Majed has a talent for academic writing and loves teaching. He has published a chapter from the book: “Bombay Cinema and Postmodernism” in the book: “A Handbook of Research on Social and Cultural Dynamics in Indian Cinema”. He was also part of the OCEANS network delegation to Hanoi National University of Education, Vietnam in 2025. He also gave a guest lecture on digital journalism at AJK MCRC, Jamia Millia Islamia.Read more
