The annual southwest monsoon advanced further in Maharashtra on Tuesday and reached Mumbai 12 days after its normal start date of June 11, a day after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) signaled a brief revival in weather activity over the region.
The Meteorological Department expected further advance towards Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh by Friday, and the monsoon is expected to advance into Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand by the end of June.
Among the most late cases since 1950
IMD data shows that, as per records since 1950, this is the third most delayed onset of monsoon over Mumbai.
Read also | Monsoon finally enters Mumbai after long delay; IMD issues heavy rain warning
Last year, the monsoon arrived in Mumbai on May 26, 16 days ahead of schedule, the first start in 75 years. In contrast, the most recent onset was recorded on June 25 in 1959, 2019, and 2023. The monsoon reached the city on June 24, 1974 and on June 23, 1981, which matches this year’s date, according to IMD records.
IMD statement on monsoon spread
“The southwest monsoon advanced further into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, some other parts of Maharashtra including Mumbai, remaining parts of Telangana and Odisha; and some other parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar on June 23,” the IMD said.
The Meteorological Department said that the current conditions remain favorable for further advance of the monsoon.
The rainfall deficit continues
Although the arrival of monsoon in Maharashtra was announced on June 8, rainfall remained minimal in most parts of the state and central India in the following weeks. IMD data shows that the country’s overall monsoon rainfall deficit was 43% as of June 22, while central India recorded a deficit of 67%.
Read also | Heavy rain lashes Mumbai ahead of monsoon, BMC issues orange alert after IMD rain forecast
Despite the onset of the storm in Mumbai, experts said the rainfall deficit was unlikely to decrease significantly before the end of June. “The monsoon is still late and we are missing a strong low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. One expects this area to form only on June 29, when we may see a forward push,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Skymet.
“This includes further progress in some parts of North Arabian Sea and Gujarat, some other parts of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, and some parts of Madhya Pradesh over the next two-three days,” the IMD said. The monsoon is likely to reach remaining parts of Jharkhand, Bihar and some areas of Uttar Pradesh in the next three to four days, it added.
Situation all over India
The monsoon entered Kerala on June 4 this year, three days later than usual. Its advance into northwest India, including Delhi, was also postponed. The normal start date for Delhi is June 27.
On Tuesday, the northern limit of the monsoon was passing through Dahanu, Wardha, Raipur, Daltonganj and Motihari.
The International Meteorological Institute expects monsoon rainfall this year to be 90% of the long-period average, and El Niño conditions are expected to suppress rainfall, especially during the second half of the season. Nearly 60% of the net cultivated area in India depends on rain-fed agriculture, making large areas of agricultural land vulnerable to weather fluctuations. A weak monsoon can hurt crop production, increase food price inflation and reduce incomes in rural areas.
