Predict this year’s Oscar winners using just math

• Best photo

  

  There’s no denying that Sinners He has already achieved one of the most impressive feats in Academy Awards history, with a record-breaking 16 nominations. To be fair, the model doesn’t have historical data on what it means to appear on the ballot multiple times, because no film has ever done that before.

  But we do have data on what it means to get the most nominations in a given year, and it’s a more mixed bag than one might expect. Excluding years in which multiple films tied for the most nominations, 44% of the films that led the nominations did not win Best Picture. The model is much more convinced Battle after battleThe dominant image runs across almost all of the best images. It is true that he lost the actor award for best actor SinnersBut this is not enough to remove it from first place in the eyes of models.

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• Best director

  

  In the entire history of the Academy Awards, 41 individuals have been nominated in at least four separate competitive categories. Of these, only two people have more than six career nominations but no awards: Bradley Cooper (12 nominations) and Paul Thomas Anderson (14 nominations). Although this won’t be Cooper’s year yet, it certainly looks like it will be Thomas’ year. Show him Battle after battle Nominations in this category, Best Picture, and Best Adapted Screenplay will see him take three bites of the apple to finally win his first Oscar.

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• Best Actor

  

  If you have a coin in hand, it’s time to flip it. It’s as effective a way to fill your Best Actor Oscars collection as any other. The math sees that there is only a 0.9 percent difference between the leader – Michael B. jordan (Sinners) – And runner-up – Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme). Not to mention Wagner Moura (Secret agent) is also north of 20 percent to win, so it’s probably appropriate to use a three-sided coin.

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• Best Actress

  

  We come to the only “easy” choice between the four representative races. I put in quotes easily because no odds are ever 100 percent, but this is by far the most likely. Jesse Buckley (Hamnet) has won a whole host of awards this awards season for her sultry, electrifying performance, including a Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and Actor’s Award. Last stop: the Oscars.

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• Best Supporting Actor

  

  There is no perfect resume here. Delroy Lindo (Sinners) missed most of the major nominations. Benicio del Toro (Battle after battle) won a bunch of early awards but then faltered in the more predictable celebrations. Jacob Al-Wardi (Frankenstein) won a Critics’ Choice Award but not enough other accolades to boost its lead. Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård had the misfortune of watching it Emotional valueShocking closure from actor award nominations lists.

  All of this means that someone – anyone – still has a chance to jump out front in the final weeks of the race. This is exactly what Sean Penn said (Battle after battle) won a BAFTA Award and an Eleventh Hour Actor Award. It’s hardly a solid biography, but it suffices for an introduction.

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• Best Supporting Actress

  

  Only once this century—and only eight times ever—has a film won Best Supporting Actress without any other nominations: Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008), for which she received a win for Penelope Cruz’s performance. This is an uphill battle Amy Madigan (Weapons) You will have to climb. And it’s not like she had a flawless path with Teyana Taylor either (Battle after battle(Golden Globe Award Winner Wunmi Mosaku)Sinners) Get BAFTA. Its top contenders come from films that have collected 29 nominations. Her film only has one. But with no clear nominee, winning the Critics’ and Actor’s Choice Awards is enough to give her the edge.

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• Best Original Screenplay

  

  For all the talk Sinners vs Battle after battle,The structure of writing classes provides a short respite ,with Sinners Landing under the original screenplay category One battle They line up in their conditioning. So, if things go according to chalk, they’ll both get the moment of appreciation they deserve during the ceremony, and Ryan Coogler won’t go home empty-handed.

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• Best Adapted Screenplay

  

  The list of films that won screenplay awards from the Writers Guild, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and the USC Scripter Award is not long: Slumdog Millionaire (2008), In the air (2009), Social network (2010), and Battle after battle. This is a pretty compelling case for seeing Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s novel as the front-runner. But don’t forget that In the air He suffered a surprising and unforgettable loss to… costlyreminds us that Oscar odds are never 100 percent.

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• Best casting

  

  The truth is that we don’t really know what will happen in the best choice, because it is a new category with no historical data on which to build a proper model. However, I did my best by surveying 90 members of the Casting Society of America to create the necessary training pool. With this data in hand, Francine Meisler (Sinners) emerges as the most likely inaugural recipient of this award.

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• Best animation feature

  

  Best animated feature winners have often been pop culture phenomenons, but it’s been a long time since their last real success (Encanto) won this category. He enters Demon hunters in kpopNetflix’s most popular movie ever, looks poised to ride that momentum all the way to the Oscars. It’s unlikely that anyone will take it down, but if someone does, look at another very successful movie from 2025, Zootopia 2Hoping to join toy story As the only franchise to win this category more than once.

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• Best global feature

  

  Often times, the Academy nominates its hand in the Best International Film category through nominations in other categories. This year is a little different: For the first time in Oscar history, four films are nominated for both international feature film and at least one other category. However, even among those other nominations, there is some disconnect: Sirat Has proper filtration, less important than It was just an accidentScreenplay filtering, which in turn tells us less Emotional valueDirector nomination. The wild card is Secret agentCast nomination, which is supposedly important but we have no historical data to tell us how important it is.

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• Best Documentary Film

  

  There never seems to be as much consensus in this category as there is sometimes seen in others, which creates an interesting challenge for Oscar prognosticators. However, this year has provided a clearer signal than usual, with the majority of forecasters lining up at the back The perfect neighborthe horrific tale of a racially charged shooting in Florida. However, even in a relatively clear year, we saw it Mr. Nobody is against Putin Winning a BAFTA award Come and see me in the good light Gain recognition by the National Board of Review.

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• Best original score

  

  Every film has a score, but few films have the meaning of the music so completely woven into their fabric. This century, among Oscar winners for Best Score, only La la land and spirit Really engaged with the music on a deeper level. now, Sinners He is the favorite to join that list. If that happens, it will mark Ludwig Göransson’s third victory (Black Panther, Oppenheimer), suddenly the legendary John Williams is only two behind the lead among living composers.

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• Best original song

  

  This category is much closer than some may realize. Yes, “Golden” is a smash hit from a blockbuster movie, which has been a recipe for Oscar success in the past (“Let It Go,” “Shallow,” “What Was I Made For?”, etc.). The model gets all of that, yet he still sees a lot of potential discomfort in “I Lied to You,” fueled by the general popularity of Sinners with Oscar voters, giving him a chance of winning of less than 1 in 3.

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• Best sound

  

  To get the best picture, F1 He’s like his heroes at the beginning of the film – he should be part of the race, but he starts at the back and has little chance of winning. To sound the best, a better analogy would be the end of the movie, which is a strong contender to win the whole thing. The film seamlessly blends all the hype of a car race with a line of dialogue at breakneck speed, and it’s a hit Sinners To win an Oscar.

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• Best production design

  

  Guillermo del Toro seems to be the lucky charm for best production design, directing winning films Pan’s maze (2006) and Water shape (2017), and is now favored to win it Frankenstein Thanks to the work of Tamara Deverell and Shane Few. This would be one behind Tim Burton’s record for the most directed films to win this category.

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• Best cinematography

  

  Early, Autumn Dorald Arkapaw (Sinners) It seemed as if she might escape this race, winning Critics Circle honor after Critics Circle honor. Then the momentum swung the other way: Michael Bowman (Battle after battle) won fewer but more predictive awards at the BAFTAs and the American Society of Cinematographers, and at the same time opened up a significant lead in the betting markets. This overturned the order and set One battle coming, but by less than 5 percent.

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• Best makeup and hairstyle

  

  Chalk another to Frankensteinwhich holds statistical leads in three categories as we trend downward. The entire premise of this movie revolves around a scientist who builds a creature by cutting off parts of several dead men. What an effort by Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Clionna Furey, and the rest of their team to make it appear convincingly to the viewer that Jacob Elordi was not one man but instead a group Of body parts resembling jigsaws giving the breath of life.

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• Best fashion design

  

  The three technical categories in which Frankenstein It holds the highest possibilities – production design, costume design, make-up and hairstyle – are all somewhat related, in that they relate directly to the images of the film. So, it’s perhaps a bit surprising that only five films make it out of this trio: Amadeus (1984), The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003), Grand Budapest Hotel (2014), Mad Max: Fury Road (2015), and Bad things (2023). If everything goes exactly according to the mathematics – and this is not a guarantee – Frankenstein He will join that list.

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• Best editing

  

  Enough precursor trophies lined up behind her Battle after battle They have made their way to first place, but the most interesting battle is for second place. while One battle and Sinners After winning two Eddie Awards, American film editors have a surprisingly poor track record of late in preparing for the Oscars. This allows F1winner of the Critics’ Choice Award (which isn’t a great indicator of Oscar movie editing per se), barely makes it into second place, the most likely winner should One battle Poor performance.

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• Best visual effects

  

  all Avatar The film has taken a backseat in the eyes of the Academy, going from the first film winning three awards, to the second film winning one, to the third film failing to get a Best Picture nod. But one constant has remained constant: voters’ attraction to the visible effects of privilege. Both of the first films won in this category, and I Fire and ash If that list is joined, the franchise will be linked Lord of the Rings As the only ones to win three competitive visual effects Oscars.

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  ♦♦♦

  There is not enough data to mathematically predict the three short film categories, although the betting markets currently favor them Two people exchanging saliva For short live events, butterfly For animated shorts, and All empty rooms For the short documentary.

  ♦♦♦

  And maybe in a weaker year too Battle after battle or Sinners The table can be fully operated. But in what has been a strong year for Hollywood, they seem destined to watch each other on stage all night long.

  Ben Zauzmer is the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind Hollywood’s Biggest Night.

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