Sensex Today Live: Strong opening for markets?
“Indian stock markets are expected to open on a strong positive note, with Gift Nifty trading at 23,974, up 470 points. Asian markets rose at the start of the week after reports of progress towards a peace deal between the US and Iran boosted risk appetite globally. A broad gauge of Asian stocks jumped more than 2%, while US futures also traded solidly higher. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell sharply by more than 4% towards the $83 mark. per barrel, alleviating concerns about inflation and providing additional support to market sentiment.
In the previous session, the Nifty 50 index rose nearly 2% and registered a decisive breakout from the recent consolidation phase. The index moved above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April high and regained its short-term moving averages, indicating a significant improvement in market structure. The sharp recovery was accompanied by strong participation across sectors, indicating strengthening bullish sentiment. The broader trend has turned constructive, although subsequent buying will be crucial to maintaining momentum.
Technically, momentum indicators have strengthened significantly. The RSI jumped to 51.25 and witnessed a bullish crossover, reflecting improving momentum after remaining weak for several sessions. The MACD is on the verge of a positive crossover, while the negative chart bars continue to contract, indicating a fading downward pressure. Immediate resistance is at 23,800, followed by the crucial 24,000-24,200 zone. A sustained move above this area may trigger a new wave of the upside. On the downside, the 23,500 level is expected to act as immediate support, followed by the stronger support area around 23,300.
Financial derivatives data reflects a clear positive tone. The call/bid ratio (PCR) rose to 1.41, its highest level since early January, indicating strong writing activity and strengthening bullish sentiment among options traders. The India VIX fell sharply by 5.73% to 14.71, hitting its lowest closing level since February 27. The continued decline in volatility indicates improved confidence among market participants and provides a supportive backdrop for stocks.
The put options chain indicates strong support around the 23,500 strike due to heavy writing activity, while immediate resistance appears near the 23,800 and 24,000 strikes where call writers remain active. A break above these resistance levels could lead to new short covering trades and more upside momentum.
In terms of price structure, Nifty confirmed a consolidation breakout after several sessions of range-bound movement. The formation of a strong bullish candle with a close above key retracement levels indicates accumulation at lower levels and strengthening demand. Pursuing buying in the coming sessions would increase the validity of the breakout and improve the probability of expansion towards higher resistance areas.
Bank Nifty significantly outperformed the benchmark index, rising nearly 3 percent and forming a strong bullish candle after the gap opened. The index regained its previous highs and moved above the key long-term moving averages, indicating strong strength. Momentum indicators also turned decisively positive, with the RSI rising to 65.37 and the MACD crossing above both the signal and the zero line. Immediate resistance now lies near the April highs of 57,456. While support appears at around 55,700-55,500. Staying above current levels may pave the way for a continuation of the ongoing uptrend.
Overall, the technical setup indicates a strong positive opening with bullish momentum likely to remain dominant. Improvement in market breadth, lower volatility, strengthening momentum indicators, and supportive derivatives position favor bulls. The Nifty’s spot trading range is expected to be between 23,500 and 24,000, while a decisive break above the 24,000-24,200 region could define the next directional move towards higher levels,” said Akash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.