The rupee gave up most of the previous session’s gains and fell by 43 paise to close at 95.61 against the US dollar on Monday, dragged down by a sharp rise in crude oil prices and a stronger dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, news agency PTI reported.Forex traders said that risk aversion in global markets, rising crude oil prices and the rise in the US dollar are putting pressure on the local currency.In the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.35 and moved between an intraday high of 95.15 and a low of 95.75 against the US currency. It eventually settled at 95.61, down 43 paise from Friday’s close.The decline comes after the rupee appreciated by 56 paise on Friday following measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India to boost foreign capital inflows and boost foreign exchange liquidity.Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.09% to 100.16.Brent crude rose 3.94% to $96.76 per barrel in futures trading after Iran fired several rounds of missiles toward Israel.“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias due to escalating geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel and Iran and rising crude oil prices. A stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields may also put pressure on the rupee,” said Anuj Chowdhury, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, quoted by PTI.
Chaudhry added that any intervention by the Reserve Bank could provide support at lower levels. The spot rate of the US dollar against the Indian rupee is expected to trade in a range of 95.40 to 96.10.The rupee erased most of Friday’s gains as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed up crude oil prices and boosted demand for safe-haven assets, said Dilip Parmar, senior research analyst at HDFC Securities.“In addition, strong US jobs data has revived expectations that the FOMC may raise interest rates, further weakening risk appetite and strengthening the US dollar.
“In the near term, the USD/INR spot rate is expected to consolidate within a range of 94.50 to 96.50,” Parmar said.In terms of domestic stocks, the Sensex fell by 719.08 points to close at 73,524.26, while the Nifty fell by 243.70 points to 23,123.Foreign institutional investors sold shares worth Rs 5,555.67 crore on a net basis during the session, according to stock exchange data.Separately, Reserve Bank data released on Monday showed that India posted a current account surplus of $7.1 billion, or 0.7% of GDP, in the January-March quarter of FY26, supported by rising services exports and remittance inflows.However, for the full fiscal year, the current account deficit was $25.2 billion, or 0.6% of GDP, compared to $22.9 billion, or 0.6% of GDP in FY25.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to respond to the recent Iranian missile strike, warning that such a move could jeopardize ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the three-month-old conflict, according to media reports.