Western sanctions are having a “significant impact” on Russia’s economy, the EU’s sanctions spokesman said ahead of the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. Ukraine.
David O’Sullivan, a veteran Irish official, insists sanctions are “not a silver bullet” and will always have to be dodged, but four years on he believes they are having an effect.
“I’m very bullish. I think the sanctions have really had a significant impact on the Russian economy,” he told the Guardian in a rare interview.
“By 2026, we may find the whole thing unsustainable, because the Russian economy is so distorted by building a war economy at the expense of the civilian economy. I think defying the laws of economic gravity can only go on for so long.”
Then O Sullivan spoke Intense Russian attacks for weeks The country is braving a bitter cold spell on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with temperatures in Kyiv dropping to -20C this week.
He said he was told by Ukrainian colleagues that Russia was able to launch twice as many drones and missiles last month compared to January 2025.
But Vladimir Putin’s war machine has not come without a cost to the wider economy, which has been under its greatest strain since the war’s early days. Oil revenues are falling, inflation is around 6% and interest rates are running at 16%.
O’Sullivan has over four decades of experience in EU institutions The EU has appointed a special envoy for sanctions With payment to combat their evasion and fraud in December 2022.
The EU has imposed an unprecedented 19 rounds of sanctions on Russia since a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, targeting more than 2,700 individuals and companies and halting trade in a wide range of economic sectors, including energy, aviation, IT, luxury and consumer goods, diamonds and gold.
The sanctions envoy said he was “too slow to blame countries” for not complying with the EU’s wishes, adding, “No [non-EU] The rest of the world has an obligation to respect our sanctions.”
The EU aims to persuade other countries not to allow the resale of European goods to Russia, especially parts that can be used or remanufactured for military use.
O’Sullivan says the block has had “some success in prevention[ing] Direct re-export of key products for arms “to a lesser extent” through Central Asia, the Caucasus, Turkey, Serbia, the UAE and Malaysia has largely been avoided by “economic operators, cashing in on economic opportunities” rather than being managed by governments, he said.
But China, with it “No-limits” friendship with Moscowexception. “China is clearly backfilling and supporting” Russia, though not in the form of direct military supplies, he said.
Several EU leaders have raised this concern with Beijing, he said. “The answer is always the same: ‘There’s nothing to see here. We don’t know what you’re talking about. We don’t see any problem.'”
O’Sullivan said the EU had taken action to counter it successfully Russian Shadow Fleet – Aging tankers under obscure ownership transporting Russian oil to export markets in China and India. As of December, nearly 600 ships were under EU sanctions.
“We’ve been very successful in getting flag states to remove their flags from sanctioned vessels. We’ve tightened the screws on that particular circumvention.
Russia’s federal budget revenues from oil and gas, the lifeblood of the economy, Halved in January According to the Finance Ministry in Moscow, it reached its lowest level since July 2020.
But the US criticized the EU for not going that far.
Over the weekend, the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant, accused the EU of “funding a war against itself” after signing a trade deal with India that did not include more restrictions on Russian oil purchases. From a full scale invasion, India is the first or second largest in the world Buyer of Russian crudeheavily reduced due to the impact of Western sanctions.
A few days later, America claimed India Stop buying Russian oil in exchange for a reduction in US tariffs on its goods.
O’Sullivan defended the EU-India trade deal, pointing to the developments that preceded its signing, which led to EU sanctions being imposed. A large Indian refineryan EU ban on imports of refined products made from Russian crude, The decision to block access to tankers, including those from India, and the owner of 14 Indian ports, the Adani Group, has been sanctioned.
India, says O’Sullivan, “is a very important country, and I think we have a lot to gain by engaging with it. Don’t always agree with every Indian foreign policy position”.
His team P Focused exclusively on 300 products.General high priority list”, key products not considered dual-use items that require export licenses to sell, such products including memory cards, optical readers and circuit boards made by European companies have been found in Russian drones, missiles and helicopters.
O’Sullivan said there was a greater awareness among EU member states that Western technology could be sold to foreign distributors and then supplied to Russia. “I don’t think we’ve completely eliminated the problem, but we’ve reduced it,” he said.
“If you go to Kyiv, to the Institute of Forensic Science, after they are reconstructed, you can see where the parts come from, and unfortunately they come mainly from the West, from the US, the EU, Switzerland or the UK. It’s embarrassing for all of us.”
