Will the repercussions of Pakistan’s terrorism policy now reach its fields and farms? With India keeping the Indus Water Treaty on hold, severe water shortages across Sindh and Balochistan are fueling fears of “economic carnage” in agricultural areas.Months after New Delhi suspended the decades-old treaty in the wake of the Pakistan-sponsored terror attack in Pahalgam, Pakistan faces a worsening water crisis that now threatens agriculture, livelihoods and regional economies across parts of Sindh and Balochistan.The shortages have particularly affected Sindh province, home to Karachi, Pakistan’s financial capital, where political leaders, farmers and water experts are increasingly concerned about dwindling supplies and uneven distribution.With Sindh and Balochistan facing severe water shortages, the crisis affects nearly a third of Pakistan’s population.
India’s tough stance after Pahalgam
India’s response to the Pahalgam terror attack extended beyond military action under Operation Sindoor. One of the most significant diplomatic measures taken by New Delhi was the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, signaling a “zero tolerance” approach towards Pakistan.Reinforcing this position, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh recently made it clear that India has no intention of softening its stance.
“After the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, by suspending the Indus Water Treaty, we said that those whose tears have dried should not expect water from us. We will not allow the waters of the Indus to reach the sponsors of terrorists and enemies of humanity,” he said.These statements confirm New Delhi’s position that terrorism and normal bilateral arrangements cannot coexist.
Sindh’s irrigation network is under pressure
According to Dawn, the crisis has become increasingly evident around the Sukkur Barrage, one of the largest and most important irrigation structures on the Indus River. The barrage supports millions of acres of farmland across Sindh and parts of Balochistan, making it vital to Pakistan’s agricultural economy.Water shortages across the Indus canal network have reached alarming levels. Sources quoted by Dawn newspaper said that the North-West Canal is facing a deficit of 64.1 percent, the Rice Canal is facing 38 percent, and the Dadu Canal is facing an alarming deficit of 82 percent.The situation is exacerbated by allegations of illegal withdrawals and unequal distribution of water in upstream areas.Data from the Sindh Irrigation Department reportedly shows that Punjab is drawing 53,394 kesus of water against its allotted share of 44,000 kesis, more than 21 per cent above its entitlement.Likewise, the Taunsa Barrage is said to be withdrawing 25,694 kosiks against its permitted allocation of 24,000 kosiks, representing an over-withdrawal of about 9.3 percent.Meanwhile, water levels in the Chashma Barrage have continued to rise, indicating accumulation in upriver areas even as downriver areas face increasing shortages.
The political blame game intensifies
The worsening crisis sparked sharp political disputes within Pakistan.Jamaat-e-Islami leader Hafiz Naeem-ur-Rehman has accused the Pakistan Peoples Party-led Sindh government of failing to address chronic water shortages in Karachi despite its years in power.However, the PPP directed its criticism towards federal authorities and water managers.The PPP Sindh chief, Nisar Ahmad Kohro, has repeatedly warned that Sindh is deprived of its rightful share of water despite being one of the most productive agricultural regions in Pakistan.He stated that Sindh produces about 5.5 million tons of rice annually and generates nearly $1.4 billion in rice exports.Kohro warned of the economic consequences, and referred to cuts in water allocations in Sindh’s kharif season as an “economic massacre” for the province.“Sindh produces 67% of the country’s agricultural production, yet it is deprived of its rightful share of water,” Kohro said.
Farmers struggle as canals dry up
The crisis is already being felt on the ground.According to Dawn, the severe shortage is affecting the right bank canals of the Sukkur Barrage system that irrigate Larkana, Qambar-Shahdadkot, Dadu, Shikarpur and parts of Balochistan.The North-West Canal faces a 64.1 per cent deficit, the Rice Canal a 38 per cent deficit and the Dadu Canal an 82 per cent deficit, said Ishaq Mogiri, former president of the Qambar-Shahdadkot branch of the Sindh Abadgar Board.The numbers show the scale of the problem. Dadu Canal, allocated 4,995 cusecs of water, currently receives only 860 cusecs. The North-West Canal gets 2,100 cusecs against its allotment of 6,260 cusecs, while the Rice Canal gets 5,300 cusecs against its permitted quota of 8,700 cusecs.Years of delay in upgrading infrastructure and incomplete remodeling of irrigation canals have exacerbated the situation, leaving farmers unable to begin seasonal farming.“We are still waiting for the water to run out to start preparing the rice nurseries,” Mogiri told Dawn.
A growing challenge for Pakistan
Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus River system has long made water security a strategic issue. As shortages intensify and political disputes over allocation worsen, the crisis is increasingly revealing weaknesses in the country’s irrigation management and agricultural infrastructure.With India insisting on its tough stance on the Indus Waters Treaty and internal disputes over distribution continuing to escalate, it appears that the water challenge facing Pakistan will become more difficult in the coming months.