US President Donald Trump has publicly predicted an imminent deal to end the Iran war at least 38 times since March, according to a CNN count, and not every claim has been followed by any final agreement.This pattern began on March 23, less than a month after US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump announced “the major points of agreement, I would say, almost all the points of agreement.” Iran denied holding any negotiations.Within days, Trump’s predictions became more certain. On March 25, he said that Iran “very much wants to reach an agreement.” On March 26, he claimed that Iran was “begging for a deal.”
On March 30, he posted on Truth Social that “significant progress has been made,” but warned that if an agreement was not reached soon, the United States would “blow up and completely destroy all of its power plants.”
A ceasefire that was not a deal
On April 7, Trump announced a ceasefire, saying that the two sides had “come a long way” but needed two weeks “to get the deal done and done.” No final agreement followed.But Trump continued to predict. On April 15, he told Fox Business: “I think it’s very close to being over.”
On April 16, he told reporters: “It seems very good that we will make a deal with Iran.” On April 17, he said on three separate occasions that Iran had “agreed to everything” and expected to reach an agreement “in the next day or two.”By April 30, Iran was still “yearning for a deal,” according to Trump. On May 7, he told reporters at the Lincoln Memorial Reflective Complex that the deal “may not happen, but it could happen any day.”
“We are in the final throes”
Fox News’ chief political analyst noted that Trump may be sending different messages to different audiences, as he tries to calm oil markets while maintaining a tough stance toward Tehran.On June 11, Trump announced that he had canceled planned strikes against Iran, and claimed that a “big settlement” had been reached. He told reporters in the Oval Office that the signing could take place “during the weekend in Europe.” Trump said that Vice President J.D. Vance will represent the United States.But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said reports of the agreement are “speculation” and “nothing has been finalized.” He said that the United States made “exaggerated demands” and added “new demands.”Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who is mediating between the two sides, posted on social media that the “final agreed text of the peace agreement” had been reached, adding that he was working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.As of Friday, no agreement had been signed. Trump’s latest claim, that a deal could be reached “over the weekend or Monday,” would mark his 38th prediction or 39th if it also fails to come true.
Suspicions of insider trading
A BBC report shows how a consistent pattern of suspicious trading accompanied Trump’s Iran war announcements, with huge bets placed in financial markets minutes before his market-moving comments were published.On March 9, traders placed huge bets on falling oil prices 47 minutes before Trump told CBS that the war was “pretty much full-on.”
When the news broke, the price of oil fell by 25%. These traders have made millions.On March 23, $1.5 billion in S&P futures and $192 million in oil futures were traded 14 minutes before Trump posted on Truth Social about a “comprehensive solution” with Iran. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy called it “larger than any future purchases made at that time.”On June 11, $920 million worth of crude oil contracts were placed 70 minutes before Axios reported on a potential deal between the US and Iran.
When oil prices fell by 12%, these trades earned $125 million.And on prediction markets like Polymarket, six new accounts won $1.2 million betting on US strikes against Iran on exactly February 28 — the day those strikes occurred. Another user won $570,000 by betting on the overthrow of President Nicolas Maduro hours before US special forces arrested him.Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman called this “betrayal in the futures market.” Democratic lawmakers have called for investigations, but the CFTC has not confirmed any investigations. One financial regulation expert said enforcement is difficult: even with clear evidence, “there is a strong possibility that no one will be prosecuted.”
