Canada may soon reach a point where every bit of its population growth comes from immigration, with births not adding to the total, an expert has warned.With population growth now roughly flat, the parliamentary budget officer expects 2026 to mark the second straight year of zero growth in Canada, based on the federal government’s latest immigration levels plan.
A 2024 government report also indicates that newcomers are expected to account for all population growth by 2032.Dan Hebert, a geography professor at the University of British Columbia who studies immigration, said the country is moving toward new territories.“Canada’s natural increase will soon reach zero. Maybe 2029, maybe 2030, more or less, right? And at that point, all of the population growth will be tied to immigration, almost 100 percent,” he said, according to CTV News.
“This means that wherever the government of Canada, and in particular (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada), sets this immigration number, that is the number the population will grow. So this is historically unprecedented,” he added.Canada’s population rose after the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at 3.1 per cent in 2023, well above the historical average of 1.1 per cent since 1972.
This increase was driven almost entirely by immigration.Statistics Canada data show that in 2024 the population grew by 816,000 temporary and permanent immigrants, while natural growth, defined as births minus deaths, was about 34,000 people. Immigration has been the main driver of growth since the beginning of the millennium. In 2000, about 148,000 migrants arrived, compared to a natural growth of about 110,000.
The gap has only widened over the past 25 years.The latest immigration plan aims to reduce the total number of arrivals, especially temporary residents such as students, to ease pressure on housing and public services.
How does population growth affect the housing market?
Rachel Battaglia, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, said slowing population growth is already affecting the housing market. The bank expects rents to continue to decline this year after rising sharply in the years following the pandemic.
Rentals.ca says the average rent across Canada fell in February for the 16th straight month, but the speed of the decline is now slowing.When fewer new arrivals arrive, demand for housing declines in areas where many immigrants typically settle, Battaglia said. However, she said lower demand could also reduce the motivation to build new homes. She added that housing remains less affordable than it was before the pandemic, exacerbated by low consumer confidence and a weak labor market.
What is the elderly dependency ratio?
Dan Hibbert also warned that Canada’s aging population will increase the elderly dependency ratio. It currently stands at about 29.5 people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age people. Using Statistics Canada models, he estimates that if population growth averages 0.8 per cent annually, the ratio could rise to about 50 retirees for every 100 workers within 50 years.“The higher this ratio, the more difficult it is to make the economy function properly.
“And also, in particular, for the government to function properly,” Hebert said.“Once people retire, they remain dependent on social services,” he added. “In fact, dependence on social services becomes higher over time simply because of the additional health care costs… At the same time, they receive less tax revenue, because they are not working.”He said Ottawa should think beyond the current three-year immigration planning window.
