Global advertising revenue will exceed $1.67 trillion by 2030, up from $1.15 trillion in 2025 and $1.28 trillion this year, according to new forecasts from research and data firm Omdia, revealed on Tuesday.
“But, of course, this growth trajectory could be severely affected depending on the situation in the Gulf,” Maria Roa Aguete, global head of media and entertainment at Informa-owned TechTarget, warned on StreamTV Europe in Lisbon, referring to the Iran war.
“Unfortunately, there are conflicts in the world, and these conflicts are active,” the expert said, noting that her team analyzed the early signs of impact in cooperation with WARC Media. “There are losses already happening, and they expect that in the next two years, at least $94 billion will be removed by the crisis and everything is getting more expensive and more is happening in this part of the world.”
A graphic presented by Rua Aguete at the Lisbon event estimates a $49.9 billion hit related to the Iranian conflict to projected ad growth in 2026, from a gain of $124.2 billion to $74.2 billion. This could be followed by a $44.0 billion impact on advertising growth in 2027, which would raise this year’s projected gains from $108.8 billion to $64.0 billion.
Peace talks between the US and Iran failed this weekend, but there have been efforts to resume negotiations that also include calls for an end to the blockade imposed by both sides on the Strait of Hormuz. This connection between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean is a major route for global trade, including shipments of oil, natural gas, fertilizers and other commodities.
Excluding any impacts from the Iran War, Omdia’s new forecast calls for 11 percent ad gains this year, in line with 2025, followed by 8 percent growth in 2027 and 2028, and a 6 percent increase in 2029 and 2030, respectively.
