There are “temporary signs” that the housing market in England and Wales is recovering from months of slowdown after uncertainty. Autumn budget and financial pressures, estate agents and surveyors report.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said its members were more optimistic about the year ahead than at any time since December 2024, with inquiries from new buyers, agreed sales and house prices turning less negative in January.
A monthly survey of chartered surveyors in England and Wales found 35% of Ricks members expected house sales to increase over the next 12 months. The index measures the difference between the share of agents reporting rising and falling optimism.
Demand from new buyers was still subdued, however, as respondents saw a further drop in inquiries in January, with a net balance of -15%, but Ricks said the figure showed a “reduced negative” after readings of -21% in December and -29% in November.
Similarly, agreed sales volumes improved with a net balance of -9%, the lowest negative reading since June 2025. house prices A “potential turning point” has also been reached, Rick’s survey said. Although more agents reported house prices falling than rising over the past three months, the house price gauge stood at -10%, down from -19% in October.
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Ricks, said: “There are early signs that market conditions are improving after a challenging period, although activity levels are still subdued, meaning any recovery will be gradual.”
Estate agents and surveyors reported a significant slowdown in activity in the housing market in the months leading up to the Autumn Budget at the end of November, due to uncertainty over what taxes might apply to property transactions. These included fears of changes to stamp duty and capital gains taxes on some primary residences, but none were ultimately announced in the budget.
While some estate agents reported a “new year bounce” in activity since the budget, many reported continued concerns from buyers about financial uncertainty, interest rates and the cost of living.
Rubinsohn said: “Whether this temporary improvement develops into sustained momentum will depend heavily on the trajectory of mortgage rates and broader macro confidence in the coming months.”
Property developers Barrett Redrow and Bellway also reported “subdued” activity in the months leading up to the Autumn Budget in their latest financial results this week.
Barratt Redrow, the UK’s biggest housebuilder, cut its dividend on Wednesday and reported a 13.6% decline in underlying pre-tax profits to £199.9m in the six months to the end of December. It said it found that during this time “consumer confidence is low, economic and political uncertainty is high and affordability challenges remain an issue for many consumers”. The housebuilder said 7,444 houses were completed during the period, taking the total to 17,200 to 17,800 for the year.
Similarly, housebuilder Belway said customer demand throughout the autumn was “affected by uncertainty ahead of the Government Budget”. In a trading update for the six months to the end of January released on Tuesday, it said it completed 4,702 homes, a 2.7% increase from 4,577 in the same period in 2025.
