After 68 matches, 25,105 runs and 793 wickets, the IPL 2026 league stage will reach a dramatic final day. One dividing point remains. Three teams are still alive. By Sunday night, two dreams will be over, while one will advance to the playoffs.At the top, Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Gujarat Titans have already clinched the top two spots and will face off in the first qualifier after both finished with 18 points. Sunrisers Hyderabad, who also finished with 18 points but with a lower run rate, are in third place and will now wait for their Eliminator rivals.The fourth and final qualifying berth remains undetermined. Her fate falls on Big Sunday.Two matches remaining:
Rajasthan Royals against Mumbai IndiansKolkata Knight Riders Against Delhi Capitals
Current points:
- PBKS – 15 points (all matches completed)
- RR – 14 points (1 match remaining vs MI)
- KKR – 13 points (one match remaining vs DC)
He will be watching nervously from home as Punjab Kings, whose league campaign is effectively over after finishing with 15 points from 14 matches.
At the moment, PBKS is provisionally in fourth place, but the fate of qualification is no longer in their hands.
Punjab Kings (PBKS) qualify if…
- RR loses to MI
- If KKR loses or the match is canceled – PBKS qualifies immediately
- If KKR beats DC in a close encounter – PBKS beats KKR over NRR
RR and KKR can still snatch the point away. The equations are clear, at least at first.
Rajasthan Royals (RR) qualifies if…
This takes RR to 16 points, automatically above PBKS (15) and the maximum possible number of points for KKR (15). No NRR calculations needed.KKR enters the final day with 13 points and can reach 15 points only if they beat DC. But even if they do, it may not be enough.
Their current NRR of +0.011 lags significantly behind PBKS’s +0.309, meaning KKR not only needs a win, they need a big win.If KKR bat first, they would likely need a margin of victory of around 76 runs or more to leapfrog PBKS in net run rate. If you chase KKR, the condition becomes more severe in terms of scoring rate. Depending on the target, KKR will likely need to complete the chase around the 12-run mark.
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) only qualify if:
- RR loses to MI
- KKR beat DC by enough margin to overtake PBKS over NRR.
KKR will need to win by more than 76 runs to get past NRR PBKS. If KKR’s chase is successful, KKR will need to chase very quickly: roughly around the 12 mark.If KKR bats first
| KKR scores batting first | DC points | Margin of victory is required |
|---|---|---|
| 160 | 82 or less | 78 runs |
| 180 | 103 or less | 77 runs |
| 200 | 123 or less | 77 runs |
| 220 | 144 or less | 76 runs |
| 240 | 165 or less | 76 runs |
If KKR chase successfully
| goal | KKR should chase him |
|---|---|
| 140-160 | Within 12 amounts |
| 161-180 | In the range of 12.1 amounts |
| 181-200 | In the range of 12.1 amounts |
| 201-220 | In the range of 12.2 amounts |
| 221-240 | In the range of 12.3 amounts |
If RR beats MI in the afternoon clash, the playoff race ends immediately. RR becomes the fourth qualifier, and the evening match between KKR and DC becomes irrelevant for qualification.But if MI upset RR, Eden Gardens will host a virtual knockout. PBKS will suddenly become Delhi Capitals’ supporters on the night, hoping that DC will win outright or avoid a crushing defeat.Meanwhile, KKR will know exactly what they need by the time they step on the field.One last day. Two matches. Three competitors. One seat remaining in the qualifiers.
