The 30-day waiver issued by the US allowing India to continue purchasing Russian energy reflects a “very sad situation” on two fronts according to energy markets and geopolitics expert Dr Anas Al-Hajji, who said one of those fronts is the question of why India needs Donald Trump’s permission anyway.
Speaking to The Hindustan Times Podcast, Dr Al-Hajji said this development highlights deep uncertainties in global energy security and shipping routes.
“This concession reflects a very sad situation on two fronts. The first front is why does India, a great country like India, need permission from President Trump or his government to essentially buy Russian oil? This is number one,” he said.
“Second, it is assumed that the war will end very soon. We are told that the Iranian Navy has been destroyed and that the situation in the Gulf must be resolved quickly. President Trump will provide insurance and provide security for ships passing through the Irma area. Why allow India to get Russian oil if the situation must be resolved?”
Dr. Al-Hajji added that the concession indicates that the geopolitical situation and energy level may not stabilize anytime soon.
“It is sad that India needs this permission, which is sad because it is an indication that the situation will not be resolved. I am not just talking about war. I am talking about the situation in space Irma,” Dr. Al-Hajji said.
He also pointed to US President Donald Trump’s long-standing views on oil prices.
“We know President Trump is against low oil prices. We know he’s been that way for a very long time, even before he became president. So why?”
The research also touched on the impact of US sanctions on Russian energy companies and their impact on India’s purchases of crude oil.
“Russian oil in the dark market”
Dr. Al-Hajji pointed out that some Indian imports have slowed in recent months after US sanctions targeting Russian companies. “We have seen, of course, over the last couple of months that some of India’s purchases of crude oil, especially from Russia, have declined due to the fact that the United States has unveiled these sanctions against companies like Rosneft and Lukoil.”
He added that major Indian refiners had previously relied heavily on Russian crude supplies.
“So Indian companies like Reliance for their refineries in places like Jamnagar have been buying a lot of energy from Russian companies like Rosneft. They have stopped these purchases because of US sanctions.”
“Do we expect that in the next 30 days, just to be clear, those sanctions that the US Treasury imposed last year will be suspended for those 30 days? Is that what we’re seeing? In a sense, we don’t know exactly what it is. All of this means, basically, that there are some oil tankers near India that are Russian or carrying Russian oil, and then India is allowed to have it,” he added.
However, he said Russian oil continued to reach Indian refineries through less clear channels.
Explaining something he found “kind of funny,” he said: “India has never stopped buying Russian crude. And the data is about 1 million or 1.1 million barrels, that’s the kind of clear data that you’re importing 1.1 million barrels.”
“But I track these things all the time, and I can tell you that we saw these Russian ships coming to Oman, and then within a day or two, back to Russia. So where did that oil go? And the distance between them and the Indian ports, basically, is very short.”
According to him, Indian refiners are still getting Russian crude at a discount through alternative markets.
“So we know that Indian refiners are buying Russian oil in the dark market anyway, and they are buying it at a discount anyway,” he added.
“The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is extremely devastating for the global economy.”
Dr. Al-Hajji stressed that the biggest concern for global markets is not the waiver itself, but rather the broader instability affecting shipping routes and energy trade.
“But the issue now, for India and the world, is not allowing India to buy Russian crude. The problem is what does this mean for the Strait of Hamroz?”
“This means that this situation will continue, and this is very destructive for the global economy, devastating for India’s economy and everything else,” he added.
He said the crisis could be resolved quickly if regulatory hurdles were temporarily eased.
“The whole situation could be easily resolved if they wanted to resolve it by contacting the EU and asking them to suspend the provisions in the law.”
“There are certain parts in the law, in insurance law, that if they suspended that for a month, just one month, they could fix the issues right away. Why wouldn’t they do that?”
Dr. Al-Hajji said that insurance restrictions and European regulations were fundamental to the current disruption in oil shipments.
“Because the problem in reality is in European law on the one hand, and insurance companies on the other hand, which decided to cancel insurance policies for tankers, so the tankers stopped.”
“So why is this problem not being dealt with? Why do we have to go the other way to solve the problems when we can solve this problem directly, just by asking the EU to do these things?” He added.
