The results of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections came as a surprise to many, with actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamil Nadu Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) party emerging as the single largest party in the state.
But TVK fell short of the 118-seat majority, as the party formed in 2024 won 107 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. The ruling Democratic Alliance managed to obtain 74 seats, while the National Democratic Rally came in third place with 53 seats.
Others outside these three blocs (TVK was fighting alone) did not get even a single seat.
With no party or alliance winning enough seats to form the government, it is natural to wonder what might happen next in Tamil Nadu. Will Vijay become the first non-DMK and non-AIADMK chief minister of the state since 1967? With whom will he associate? Here are the possible scenarios:
What will happen next in Tamil Nadu after no party gets a majority?
TVK is taking smaller parties with it
One thing Vijay and the TVK can do is take smaller parties from the DMK alliance with them to form the government. The party needs 11 deputies to form the government. Minor parties (including Congress) in the DMK alliance have 14 seats. Hizb ut-Tahrir had earlier reported that a section of Congress wants a pre-poll alliance with TVK and can still support Vijay with its five members. Both the Left parties (CPI and CPI(M)) have two legislators. If they join TVK, Vijay will need only a few others to form the government, which the Dalit-centric Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) party can provide.
The only problem with this is the impact it will have on the broader opposition alliance in the country and the DMK’s role in it. Will the DMK remain in alliance with the India Bloc if the Congress and others in the state abandon it?
DMK+ supports TVK
Another possible scenario is that the entire DMK+ alliance supports TVK, and Vijay becomes chief minister without much difficulty. This is mathematically and politically reasonable, as it will not affect the broader opposition coalition at the national level. In fact, the inclusion of TVK will only strengthen it.
But is the DMK ready to do this? There has been no indication yet that this will happen. Vijay calls the DMK his “political rival” and has directly targeted the party on several occasions. Some analysts also suggest that Vijay may not go with the DMK, as he may be wary of the public backlash after voters rejected the MK Stalin-led government. But another way to see it is for voters to put their faith in Vijay, but their second choice, if TVK is not in the fray, seems to be the DMK with 60 seats alone.
AIADMK worker
Another way things could go is for the opposition AIADMK to support TVK in forming the government. But there was no sign of that either. In fact, the public statements were largely at odds with TVK and AIADMK coming together.
Senior AIADMK leader C. Ponnaiyan on Monday said that the party will reject any alliance offer from TVK. But it is certain that these comments came while the count was still ongoing.
TVK strategist John Arokiyasamy asserted that the party has “no interest in the AIADMK or the BJP”, citing opposition to “divisive politics and corruption”.
Another big hurdle for any future alliance is TVK’s unwavering stance against the BJP. TVK has repeatedly indicated that it will not align with the AIADMK-BJP axis, calling the saffron party its “ideological enemy”, meaning any deal may require the AIADMK to exit the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
