The battle lines have largely been drawn, the key poll issues appear to have been decided, and the political loyalties of the major caste blocs appear to have been settled ahead of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections scheduled for early 2027. But two major caste groups — Brahmins and Dalits, especially the Jatavs — are seen as indecisive. Electoral data and political behavior indicate the important role they will play in determining the winner.
The rising anger among Brahmins and Jatavs shifting to an alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress in the 2024 elections is noteworthy. Both could derail the BJP’s hopes of retaining power for a third time.
BJP poll managers are not overly concerned about the Brahmins, as they can be appeased and have limited political options. But it will be difficult to please Dalits, especially Jatavs. They remain skeptical of the BJP and have options.
The Congress-SP alliance won 43 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and secured 43.52% of the votes in the 2024 polls. The BJP’s seats fell from 62 in 2019 to 33, taking its total number of seats to fall below the majority mark in Parliament for the first time since 2014.
To prevent a repeat of the 2024 poll results, the BJP-led government is believed to be considering playing an emotional card by accepting the long-awaited demand for Bharat Ratna, the highest civilian award, by Kanshi Ram, a Dalit icon and founder of the Bahujan Samaj Party.
The timing of the honor is being discussed. Should it be before the 2027 Uttar Pradesh and Punjab elections or the 2029 Lok Sabha elections? Kanshi Ram was born in Punjab, but achieved much of his political success in Uttar Pradesh by pushing the BSP to power.
The 2027 polls are considered crucial for the BJP’s prospects in the 2029 national elections. BJP seats in state assembly elections have declined since 2017.
Kanshi Ram died in 2006, years after Mayawati succeeded him as BSP chief. Mayawati repeatedly demanded Bharat Ratna for her guru, saying he dedicated his life for the upliftment of oppressed people. She repeated the demand in 2024 when it was echoed by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav.
BJP leader Sanjay Paswan demanded a Bharat Ratna for Dalit icons Jagjivan Ram and Kanshi Ram in 2013. He hung pictures of the two in his Delhi office after being appointed president of the BJP’s Dalit Morcha.
A lot has changed since Kanshi Ram became an advocate of anti-caste politics. It has galvanized the Bahujan Samaj, or marginalized communities, Dalits, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes and religious minorities, who constitute 85% of the state’s population. Kanshi Ram founded the BSP in 1984. His politics were provocative, experimental and abrasive. His dream of a Dalit Prime Minister died with him.
Kanshi Ram is remembered more for his empowerment of Dalits than his aggressive language against powerful leaders of all parties.
Former Prime Minister Late Karpoori Thakur received the Bharat Ratna Award ahead of the 2025 Bihar elections. The awards are often given to political leaders, including known political opponents, for political reasons. But not every time the party in power reaps electoral gains.
In 2024, the Bharat Ratna Award was given to former Prime Minister Late Charan Singh. A year earlier, SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav was awarded the Padma Vibhushan, the second highest civilian award.
The BJP received support from Jats thanks to its alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Charan Singh’s grandson, Jayant Chaudhary, has severed his ties with the SP and joined the BJP-led alliance ahead of the 2024 elections. The Padma Vibhushan award given to Mulayam Singh Yadav did not attract his core Yadav voters to the BJP. Bharat Ratna was also awarded to former Prime Minister late PV Narasimha Rao in 2024.
Who will win if Kanshi Ram is given the position of Bharat Ratna? Observers feel that the move may mitigate but will not turn the Jatavs into the BJP. The winner will be Mayawati if she actively participates in the fray in the 2027 elections. Jatavs are not averse to Congress and SP giving them due representation to gain their support.
BJP is unsure of gains in Uttar Pradesh. But Punjab may respond differently, as may other states. Kanshi Ram was, after all, a national figure. Now, it is time for political calculations and evaluation.
Dalits make up 21% of the population of Uttar Pradesh; 56% of them belong to the Jatav caste of Mayawati. Of the remainder, 33% include Basis, Dobis, and Corys. They supported different political parties.
