In a world where brute force rather than diplomacy or dialogue is the deciding factor, India needs to sharply reduce its vulnerabilities, increase its capabilities and multiply its capabilities.
While US President Donald Trump used “might is right” in Venezuela in January and now in Iran in tandem with Israel, Russia has used the same principle in Ukraine since February 2022, and China has been using the same strong-arm tactics against Taiwan for the past decade. Just as Ukraine has drawn Europe into its conflict with Moscow, Iran has sparked a global energy crisis by targeting commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, making the entire Middle East and beyond collateral damage to its war game plan.
The short-sightedness of the Indian governments in the past becomes clear when we realize that the US and Russia enjoy energy security, and that China, a rising power, has been able to secure its energy needs through pipelines and long-term contracts. India, which was not in favor of peace and non-alignment in the past, is vulnerable because it is a major importer of oil, LNG, LPG and fertilisers. India’s problem is exacerbated by the fact that it is not an OEM of major hardware platforms and relies on countries like Russia, France, Israel and the United States for its national security needs. The Indian Armed Forces prefer to procure equipment from abroad, as Indian design, development and manufacturing of initial supply units takes a long time to deliver the technology, which is almost obsolete even before it is inducted into the Indian Armed Forces.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken exception to the talk of “Aatmanirbharta” and the need to develop indigenous hardware platforms, Indian dependence on imported platforms and reserve weapons has not reduced significantly as the civil-military bureaucracy of Indian national security does not trust the Indian defense sector and vice versa as they always choose the safer route.
Since India has the fourth largest economy and fourth largest military power, it is not appropriate for us to depend on third parties to meet national or energy security needs when it comes to fundamental issues related to military industrialization, foreign intelligence, or science and technology development. Moreover, what is dragging the nation down is the multiple bureaucratic compliances of any entrepreneur willing to do business in India.
But even before we begin to consider solutions to all these most pressing issues, India must be ideologically clear in its mind about the country’s larger purpose. Strategic independence turns into an exercise in opacity if it is merely a justification without implementation on the ground. The Indian bureaucracy, including diplomats, continues to view the Modi government’s decisions from an anti- or pro-US, Russia and now China perspective. Weaned on non-alignment, socialism, Aman ki Asha and the Palestinian cause, a large section of the Indian bureaucracy has become moral warriors and hates the reality of power. The fact that India is an independent great power makes such vested interests indigestible, even as major powers use Indian lobbyists and influencers to push their agenda.
The war between the US, Israel and Iran should come as a surprise to Indian security planners, as all the major parties in this fight are acting in their own interests without any concern for the energy needs of other countries. The targeting of civilian ships by Iran and the massive bombing by the United States and Israel on the Shiite country have pushed the world to the brink. India will have to reform its administrative and bureaucratic structures if New Delhi wants to move towards the top spot in the Formula 1 world circuit. No signs of jogging either.
