There is a big caste angle in the women’s quota, and the demarcation link: how OBCs and the census emerge, beyond the concerns of the South

When Opposition Leader Rahul Gandhi rose to speak in the Lok Sabha on Friday, he did not start with the argument that the South may lose seats that has dominated headlines since the introduction of the delimitation bill linked to the women’s quota amendment.

It started with a completely different charge.

He said in the House of Representatives: “This is not a bill for women. It has nothing to do with women’s empowerment.” Then he presented what he described as a simple test. “Return this old draft law now and we will help you pass it for implementation from this moment,” he said.

The “old bill” he was referring to is… The Nari Shakti Vandhan Adhinyam Bill has already been passed unanimously by both the Houses in 2023. This provides for 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.

It enters into force after the completion of the first census after its beginning. This means that the much-delayed census conducted now will likely end in 2027. After the census, there will be a demarcation committee. This would push the implementation of the women’s quota system until after the 2029 elections.

Three new bills – The Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, the Delimitation Bill 2026 and the UT Laws (Amendment) Bill 2026 – sought to remove the ‘last census’ requirement. The major amendment bill was rejected in the Lok Sabha by Friday evening, with the BJP-led government falling short of the required two-thirds majority.

These now-rejected bills proposed a system whereby the government could decide to use any population census to demarcate borders.

For now, the plan is limited to the Lok Sabha, government data indicated.

The government said demarcation – to increase seats by at least 50% – would lead to faster implementation of the women’s quota. Let’s say seats go from 543 to 816; An additional third can be reserved for women.

But the opposition claimed The Women’s Quota Law of 2023 could be applied instead. Congress leader Sonia Gandhi wrote that the party was doing well with its implementation even with the current House strength of 543 seats.

Congress also claimed that the real purpose of the new bills was to raise an issue Demarcate the border sooner – with the women’s quota used as a cover.

But MP Shashi Tharoor said on Friday that redrawing the electoral map requires deeper consultations, because population alone cannot be the basis.

There are already concerns, especially among states with low population growth in the South, and caste groups that want a say before any demarcation is implemented.

The argument is straight forward – that there is “There are no problems” regarding giving a 33% quota to women; But do not rush to draw borders without addressing complex questions.

One of these questions concerns class.

One of the major allegations against the Modi regime is that the latest bills were aimed at “marginalizing” the government The caste count is being conducted as part of the 2026-27 Census.This is the first census to count all castes – SCs and STs have already been counted – after nearly 100 years. Scheduled Castes and Tribes (SCs, STs) already get some quota in Parliament and assemblies.

The figures in this census can therefore influence what and how much are provided to Other Backward Classes (OBCs). They constitute the largest segment of India’s population, according to estimates so far.

“The government is trying to ensure that caste census has nothing to do with representation in the next 10 to 15 years,” he claimed.

He linked this to a specific chronology:

“They are escaping the census because…the demand for reservations will go up. When we listen to the Prime Minister (Narendra Modi), he says he belongs to the OBC group. But when it comes to reservation, I would like to hear the government talk about how much will be reserved for OBCs,” he said. On Friday, Amit Shah once again asserted that Prime Minister Modi belongs to the OBC group.

It is, in fact, the main reason why women’s reservation remained obscured in Parliament for years.

The 81st Constitutional Amendment Bill to reserve 33% reservation for women was first introduced in 1996 under Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda. It was discussed again in 1997 and 1998, but lapsed each time. The 2008 bill during the Congress-led UPA period passed the Rajya Sabha test in 2010, but was never voted on in the Lok Sabha. A political consensus could not be reached.

The reason has been, consistently, the insistence of parties representing OBC communities – such as the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal of UP and Bihar – on inclusion of a sub-quota for OBC women. They argued that women were not a homogeneous group, and that social class and other factors affected different sectors of women differently, as political scientists did.

The legal issue is that the demand for OBC quota cannot currently be met. The Constitution of India only provides 15% and 7.5% reservation for SCs and SCs. A joint parliamentary committee recommended this in the 1990s OBC reservation under women’s quota will be considered “once the Constitution is amended to allow OBC quota” at all.

No amendment has been made to OBC quotas in Parliament and assemblies. Because this first requires data. Specifically, caste census data that would lay the foundation for such a claim.

In 1980, The Mandal Commission – working without hard data – has estimated OBCs at 52% of India’s population. This figure became the basis for the 27% OBC quota in government jobs implemented in 1990, and some related decisions thereafter.

State level surveys conducted in recent years suggest that the data of more than 50% of OBCs may in fact be correct. The 2023 Bihar caste survey found that such castes were 63%, while the share of The general category (“upper class”) was only 15.5%. In the local level elections, NGOs got quotas in Bihar and some other places. Telangana recently released its tally, in which the percentage of OBCs reached more than 60%.

This is a pattern that shows that OBCs are much larger than… 27% of the job share.This was the opposition’s argument for a nationwide caste census.

“Detailed caste data may reinforce demands for proportional representation, especially from OBC communities, making redistribution of seats more controversial,” he said. Manoj Kumar Jha, Professor is a Rajya Sabha MP from RJD.

The BJP, which had carefully built a caucus for its upper-caste base with some OBC groups, “reluctantly agreed to hold a caste census,” said political scientist Zoya Hassan.

She said the 2011 census is “safer” for the BJP as a basis for delimitation. The wireas it does not contain OBC data.

Caste counting, as is done in the ongoing census, could “empower the OBCs to demand more and perhaps look beyond the BJP.”

But the demarcation process, as the text of the bills showed, would have used the 2011 census.

Both Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah claimed that the opposition was “using technical excuses”. “Kento Baranto” (If – but) because they “actually oppose women’s quotas.”

But Rahul Gandhi defended the opposition’s position in the House and on social media. He noted that if borders were drawn first using 2011 data, that would lock up seats for the foreseeable future. When the latest caste data comes later – with everything it reveals about the size of the OBC – it will arrive only after the map has already been redrawn. “The government is trying to ensure that caste census has nothing to do with representation in the next 10 to 15 years,” he said.

Congress leaders also noted that the women’s quota has already been approved for 2023; But issues of caste and regional representation cannot be eliminated by amending laws.

Congress Party’s Priyanka Gandhi Vadra mocked Amit Shah on Thursday by saying “everyone knows” about his plan. In reference to a legendary royal advisor who is believed to have lived there She said 2300 years ago, “If Chanakya were alive, he would have been shocked by your political machinations,” the House let out a collective chuckle. Amit Shah also smiled.

“My sister has achieved something in five minutes that I have not been able to achieve in 20 years of our political career, which is making Amit Shah ji smile,” Rahul Gandhi said in his speech on Friday.

Currently, in any case, the government does not have the two-thirds majority needed to pass the constitutional amendment. The debate will not stop and hence the stratified data will come sometime in the next two years.