The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that the monsoon has not yet begun in Kerala. The IMD forecast on May 15 that the southwest monsoon is likely to blow over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ±4 days.
Although rainfall was recorded at several stations in Kerala between Sunday and Monday, the official criteria for declaring the start of monsoon has not yet been met.
After May 10, if 60% of the 14 available stations including Minicoy, Ammini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, the Kerala start will be declared on the second day, provided deep westerly winds persist and cloudy or overcast conditions persist. Overcast.
The IMD extended range forecast shows widespread rainfall over southern parts of the West Coast from May 28 to June 4.
“So far, neither the wind profile nor the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR/cloud scale) has been met. Only one day’s rainfall criteria has been met. The rainfall should continue for two days. The clouds have moved away from the area. This is mainly because there is a cyclonic circulation over the south-central Arabian Sea pulling moisture towards itself. I don’t think the onset of monsoon will happen in the next four days. It is more likely to happen once the rains come.” Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather.
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The IMD said conditions are favorable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some other parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, southwest, southeast and east Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of the Andaman Sea during the next 2-3 days.
Heavy to very heavy rains are likely over eastern and northeastern India over the next 2-3 days and over Kerala and Tamil Nadu on Tuesday.
The heat wave continues
The IMD said that the heatwave to severe heatwave is likely to continue over central and northwest India during the next three to four days.
There is likely to be a decline in maximum temperatures and heatwave conditions are likely to subside from May 29 onwards, the IMD said.
Maximum temperatures ranged between 43 and 47 degrees Celsius over parts of northwestern India, central India, adjacent to the state of Uttar Pradesh, and eastern and northern peninsular India on Monday, and between 40 and 43 degrees Celsius over the remaining parts of the country, with the exception of parts of northeastern India, the western Himalayan region, and western south Indian peninsula. The highest maximum temperature of 47.6 degrees Celsius was reported at Banda in Uttar Pradesh and Brahmapuri in Maharashtra.
Heatwave conditions are very likely over some isolated pockets/Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and eastern Uttar Pradesh until Thursday with severe heatwave conditions in some pockets over Punjab on May 27; Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday.
