Social engineering is not something most people would associate with election strategies in a state like Tamil Nadu, however, with elections a week away (on April 23), this is what may decide whether the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (chairman of the Secular Progressive Alliance) will be able to fend off a challenge from Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (chairman of the National Democratic Alliance in the state).
The data suggest a consistent pattern in Tamil Nadu: a large number of electoral districts are decided by narrow margins, often fewer than 5,000 votes, or roughly 2% to 3% of the votes polled. This means that even smaller parties based on social classes, with limited but concentrated voting bases, can decisively change the results.
“The 2021 results underscore how tight the contest is in Tamil Nadu. 39 constituencies were decided by less than 5,000 votes, with margins as low as 137 votes in Chennai’s T Nagar seat, where DMK’s Karunanithi J won despite the AIADMK winning the seat in the previous election,” said a Chennai-based political consultant who requested anonymity.
DMK banking on expanded ‘social alliance’
Prime Minister M. K. Stalin’s DMK has anchored its campaign in a broad, multi-caste alliance under the umbrella of the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), combining governance messages with targeted caste outreach.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party will compete for 164 seats, strengthening its central position in the coalition. The Indian National Congress, led by K. Selvaperunthagai, in the state, on 28 seats. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), led by Thul Thirumavalavan, will contest 8 seats, while the Left parties, Communist Party of India and Communist Party of India (Marxist), will contest 5 seats each.
Other allies include the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), founded by actor and former MLA late Vijayakanth, which will contest 10 seats, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) with four seats, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), with two seats each, along with smaller partners like MJK and SDPI.
The seat-sharing negotiations witnessed clear friction with the Left parties and Congress, who were pressing for larger shares before the settlement. Communist Party of India (Maoist) State Minister P Shanmugam, who publicly admitted his dissatisfaction, said the alliance was finalized with the aim of “defeating the BJP-AIADMK union”.
“A deal with one seat less is not satisfactory…but we have to see it against the backdrop of the DMK bringing in several new parties with the sole aim of ensuring victory.”
DMK spokesperson and national advocate Manoraj S described the SPA as a “united front” under Stalin’s leadership. Its strategy relies on what party leaders describe as the “additive model,” which places smaller class-based classes and local influencers on a stable core voting base.
“This is not an alliance that was formed in 2025 or 2026. Except for the DMDK which is the latest entrant, everyone has been consistent partners of the DMK since 2017. This alliance has faced about seven or eight elections in a row and it has succeeded. So, it is a tried and tested alliance,” Manuraj added.
Fine calibration across regions
In northern Tamil Nadu, the VCK plays a dual role. It is uniting Dalit voters and fragmenting the Vanniyar votes that would otherwise have consolidated behind Pattali Makkal Katchi, which is part of the AIADMK-led alliance.
Thul Thirumavalavan’s decision to return to state politics and contest from Kattumanarkoil indicates an attempt to convert organizational presence into direct electoral gains.
In the south, the DMK sought to undermine the AIADMK’s traditional control over Thevar voters by appointing key leaders from the community and taking advantage of divisions within Mukkulathur-dominated political networks. The party fielded former AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam (OPS) from Bodinayakkanur, relying on his personal influence within the Thevar community to reclaim land in Theni district. OPS associates Manoj Pandian and R Vaithilingam have been sent from Alangulam and Oratanadu respectively.
Former AIADMK minister P Palaniappan has been accommodated in Pappireddipatti, reflecting the DMK’s desire to absorb political capital from across the aisle.
These calibrations extend across regions. In Cuddalore, VCK’s grassroots network is enhancing prospects. In western regions such as Erode, linkages with Congo-based institutions aim to reduce previous deficits. Uniting minorities remains central, with the World Federation of Islamic Universities and the MMK working to support Muslim and Christian voters.
“These are decisions that all alliance partners have agreed upon as they share ideological clarity and strong ties,” said TKS Elangovan, former Rajya Sabha member and DMK spokesperson.
According to psychologist Arun Krishnamurthy, the DMK’s decision to bring DMDK into the alliance represents the most striking tactical move. The party, which has long been positioned as an alternative to both Dravidian majorities, has allied itself with the DMK for the first time. The DMDK bagged 10 Assembly seats and a Rajya Sabha seat in return, making it the second largest junior partner after the Congress.
Actor Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) has chosen not to contest but will support the DMK-led alliance, adding to the broader social appeal of the alliance. Haasan was elected to the Rajya Sabha in June 2025.
AIADMK focus on consolidation and anti-incumbency
The Edappadi K Palaniswami-led AIADMK (EPS) has adopted a similar approach, strengthening the dominant caste blocs, and hoping to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling DMK.
The AIADMK will contest 178 seats. The BJP will contest 27 seats. The Anbumani Ramadoss-led Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) will contest 18 seats, while the TTV Dinakaran-led Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) will contest 11 seats.
In western Tamil Nadu, the EPS’s Gonder base remains the backbone of the alliance, especially in constituencies like Edappadi and Salem (West). In the north, the PMK aims to consolidate Vanniar votes across districts like Dharmapuri and Villupuram. In the south, the AIADMK continues to rely on Thevar support, despite internal divisions in the community involving O. Panneerselvam and others.
“The BJP adds a distinct organizational layer. It does more good for the AIADMK than the Congress can do for the DMK,” Krishnamurthy said. Although a limited number of seats are contested, it brings cadre mobilization and appeal among urban and upper-class voter sections, he said.
On the ground, several local leaders and analysts also suggested that this organizational push could be more important than Congress’ contribution to the DMK alliance.
The real battle across both coalitions lies in an estimated 50 to 60 electoral districts where margins of victory in the past have remained narrow. Analysts say these include belts in “northern Tamil Nadu, the western Kongu region”, and parts of the south where caste formations remain fluid and multi-angular.
“In these seats, small parties act as vote transfer mechanisms rather than independent contenders. Their effectiveness depends on whether caste groups vote cohesively for coalition candidates,” Krishnamurthy said.
Electoral data confirms the extent to which the gap has narrowed. According to Election Commission data, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK got about 20.46% votes and the BJP got about 11.24%, both contesting separately. The overall vote share of the DMK-led All India alliance was estimated at 46-47%.
TVK
Actor Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) adds an element of unpredictability. The party lacks a specific class base but has caught the attention of young and first-time voters. This could disrupt carefully assembled class equations in hotly contested seats.
However, both the DMK and the BJP have maintained that Vijay’s popularity may remain limited to fans of his film and that it is not… n translated into sounds.
