Exit polls released on Tuesday evening indicate a comfortable majority for the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance in the 17th Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly elections.
Matrez expects the ruling coalition to win 122-132 out of 234 seats with 40.3 per cent of the votes, while the People’s Pulse Party is more optimistic, putting the DMK alliance on 125-145 seats.
Both agencies agree that the DMK crosses the majority mark of 118 with enough room to spare.
The AIADMK-led front is expected to have 87-100 seats per Matrize and much less than 65-80 seats according to People’s Pulse.
Frontrunner Vijay Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is expected to open his account with 10-12 seats as per Matrize, while Peoples Pulse gives him a stronger debut at 18-24 seats.
If predictions hold, Prime Minister M K Stalin will become the second TDP leader after his father M Karunanidhi to win two consecutive terms in office.
The elections were held on April 23 across the state in a single phase, recording a historic voter turnout of 84.69 per cent, the highest ever in a Tamil Nadu Assembly election.
What did the polls say in 2021, and how accurate are they?
Opinion polls in the recent Assembly elections strongly indicated a landslide victory for the DMK.
Despite repeated criticism, exit polls in 2021 generally point in the right direction. Most polls predicted a landslide victory for the KDP-led coalition, predicting between 160 and 190 seats – far more than the 118 seats needed to achieve a majority.
In 2021, India Today-Axis My India has projected 175-195 seats for the DMK and 38-54 for the AIADMK, with vote shares of 48 per cent and 35 per cent respectively. Republic-CNX expected 160-170 seats for the DMK and 58-68 for the AIADMK. Chanakya today estimated 175 seats for the DMK, with a margin of error of 11, and 57 seats for the AIADMK. ABP-CVoter gave 160-172 seats to DMK and 58-70 to AIADMK.
The final results of 2021 saw the DMK winning 133 seats, while the AIADMK bagged 66 seats. The Congress, as part of the DMK alliance, won 18 seats, with an overall voter turnout of 76.6 per cent.
Most agencies over-predicted the DMK’s seat count but generally got the trend and margin of victory right.
Keen competition
Over 5.7 crore voters were eligible to cast their votes, spread across over 75,000 polling stations in over 33,000 locations. The increase in participation was more than 11 percentage points higher than in 2021.
The battle was framed primarily as a head-to-head between Stalin, who campaigned on his government’s welfare plans and Dravidian model of governance, and Edappadi K Palaniswami of the AIADMK, supported by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party at the Center as part of the NDA, which made anti-incumbency and high prices central planks of its campaign.
Major contests are expected to be held in Kolattur, Edappadi, Coimbatore, south Chennai and parts of western Tamil Nadu, where margins could shape the overall outcome. Both coalitions have expressed confidence ahead of polling day, making the exit poll numbers even more important.
The wildcard in this election was Vijay’s TVK.
By fielding candidates in all constituencies, the party firmly planted itself as a third option, distancing itself ideologically from the NDA while simultaneously attacking the KDP, providing direct propaganda to voters disillusioned with both established Dravidian parties.
The difference between 10-12 for Matrize and 18-24 for TVK’s Peoples Pulse may be among the most closely watched numbers on counting day.
A total of 4,023 candidates competed across 234 electoral districts.
The official vote count is scheduled to take place on May 4, when Tamil Nadu will know for sure whether exit poll predictions hold true, and whether Stalin will follow in his father’s footsteps.
