Last month was the fourth warmest March globally at 1.48 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with record high sea surface temperatures indicating an El Niño by July, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported on Friday.
Copernicus noted the second-warmest global sea surface temperature (SST) on record, at 20.97°C, the highest after the peak of El Niño in 2024. Daily sea surface temperatures are rising towards 2024 numbers, with many centers forecasting a neutral shift to El Niño from July.
The National Centers for Environmental Information of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that March surface temperatures exceeded the 20th century average by 1.31°C, making 2024 the second warmest year; Only 2025 was 0.01°C warmer. All of the top 10 March departures since 1850 occurred after 2015.
Europe had its second warmest March with driest conditions, after a cold, wet February, the third coldest month on the continent in 14 years.
Warmer anomalies hit the United States (long westerly heat wave), much of the Arctic, northeastern Russia, and parts of Antarctica. Colder regions included Alaska, most of Canada, southern Greenland, and northwestern Siberia.
“The Copernicus data for March 2026 tell an alarming story: 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, the lowest extent of Arctic sea ice on record for March, and sea surface temperatures once again near historic highs. Each number is astonishing in its own right – together they paint a picture of a climate system under constant and accelerating pressure. The data, produced virtually from billions of measurements via satellites, ships, planes and stations, is no longer reliable. “Climate change is the fundamental basis for any serious climate adaptation and policy response,” said Carlo Bontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at ECMWF.
Arctic sea ice in March averaged 5.7% below normal, the lowest level on record. Global surface temperatures from January to March ranked fourth.
NOAA’s forecast considers 2026 very likely among the five warmest years. Its Climate Prediction Center sees a 80% climate change-neutral chance until April-June 2026; The El Niño phenomenon rate reached 61% in May and July, and continued at 80% until August, then 85% until September.
M said. “Yes, global warming is progressing without any slowdown. This is primarily due to the increase in greenhouse gases. This year’s El Niño will add more heat to the atmosphere and increase the chances of heatwaves. We are running out of time,” said Rajeevan, former secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
