Nitish Kumar, 75, is likely to file his Rajya Sabha nomination as the Janata Dal (United) candidate on Thursday, people familiar with the matter said, raising speculation about who will replace him as Bihar’s chief minister months after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) returned to power in the state.
Thursday is the last day to file nominations for the Rajya Sabha elections. Kumar’s son Nishant, who is set to join the JD(U) on Thursday, is likely to be appointed as deputy chief minister.
The JD(U) has not made any official announcement about the possible developments. The party can win two Rajya Sabha seats on its own and help the NDA candidate bag another seat. The JD(U) has not nominated any candidate.
On Wednesday, Union Minister Giriraj Singh refuted speculations about Kumar’s nomination to the Rajya Sabha, saying such jokes are common on Holi.
Kumar has been the central figure in Bihar politics for nearly two decades. His possible move to Delhi could reshape the ruling NDA party in the state.
Kumar is expected to vacate the post of chief minister only after the nomination and election process is completed and he is sworn in as a Member of Parliament, the people cited above said. The BJP is widely expected to get the chief minister’s post if Kumar steps down. The BJP had long been the dominant coalition partner in terms of organizational strength and electoral performance, although the top job in Bihar remained in the hands of Kumar.
It is believed that BJP leaders have begun internal discussions and political assessments in anticipation of the post-Kumar scenario. The BJP leadership is expected to balance multiple factors while selecting Kumar’s successor. The decision will not just be about seniority, but will also be about class representation, alliance stability, and the broader political message the party wants to send.
Caste dynamics continue to play a crucial role in Bihar politics, and any change in leadership will take this into account. The Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) are among the most influential social groups in the state. Over the years, the EECs have been largely seen as pro-NDP. Political strategists believe that the next prime minister will come from a social background that will reassure this important voter base and help maintain the social cohesion of the coalition.
Women voters are another important factor. In the 2025 elections, women’s participation increased significantly, and social welfare programs targeting them were credited with boosting support for the National Democratic Rally Party. Networks of women associated with self-help groups, commonly referred to as “jeevika dedis”, have emerged as a strong pillar of electoral support for the ruling coalition.
The BJP is expected to take into account caste calculations and expectations of women voters while selecting its prime ministerial candidate. It may lead the government, but it must ensure that its allies support the arrangement. The JD(U) will continue to remain an important partner in the NDA and will retain its influence among many communities.
Political observers say the BJP leadership is likely to look for a formula that keeps the coalition balanced.
Patna-based political observer Kushalendra Priyadarshi said one possibility is for the chief minister’s post to go to the BJP, and the JD(U) continues to hold key government posts, including that of deputy chief minister.
He added: “Such an arrangement would help maintain stability within the alliance at a time when a leadership transition could lead to uncertainty.” He said Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) would likely try to capitalize on any discontent within the NDA, especially if the leadership change leads to friction between allies.
Another political analyst, Dhirendra Kumar, said Kumar’s possible move to Rajya Sabha could signal the beginning of a new chapter in Bihar politics. “For many years, the state’s political equations have revolved around Kumar’s leadership and his ability to manage shifting alliances. If he shifts to a national role, Bihar could enter a post-Niche phase, where the BJP tries to establish its own leadership while keeping the NDA coalition intact.”
