The southwest monsoon officially arrived in Kerala on Thursday, a few days after the India Meteorological Department had predicted its arrival. The start was delayed by about three days compared to its normal arrival time.
After making landfall in Kerala, the monsoon advances north in stages, covering most parts of the country by mid-July.
Its arrival is being closely watched because of its importance to India’s agriculture-based economy. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, approximately 51% of the country’s cultivated land depends on rainfall, which contributes about 40% of agricultural production. With nearly half of India’s population relying on agriculture for their livelihood, a healthy monsoon season is crucial for rural incomes and overall economic activity.
Read also | Monsoon likely to reach Kerala three days later than scheduled around June 4: IMD
Earlier, the IMD said that conditions have become favorable for the advance of the monsoon to additional areas in the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas.
Heavy rains fall across Kerala
The meteorological agency has also forecast heavy to very heavy rains across Kerala over the next few days, while parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka are expected to receive heavy rains.
Read also | The World Meteorological Organization warns that El Niño is 80% likely to occur between June and August
Thunderstorms accompanied by strong winds are also possible in several regions of northwest, central, eastern and southern India.
Meteorologists linked the delayed onset of the cyclone to the development of the cyclone over the western Pacific Ocean, pulling moisture away from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, along with the cyclone’s circulation near the Lakshadweep region. These factors are believed to have slowed the progress of the monsoon and weakened its initial advance into Kerala.
80% chance of El Nino occurring between June and August
In India, El Niño is associated with weaker monsoons and harsher summers.
The update said that the El Niño phenomenon currently forming will be moderate and perhaps strong, a possibility that would ring alarm bells in India, which is already experiencing a weak monsoon.
The probability of El Niño conditions developing until at least November is “close to 90% or greater than 90%,” the agency said.
