On February 17, Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat advised Hindu families to consider having three children for the benefit of the nation. He expressed concern about the decline in the Hindu population and cited the “scientific opinion” that societies with an average fertility rate of less than three could disappear.
The word “future” is indefinite, and India, the country with the largest population in the world, is unlikely to disappear. Whether having three children is in the best interest of the nation is a matter of debate, with opinion sharply divided.
India will surpass China’s population in 2023, decades after China implemented its one-child policy in the 1980s. The aging population forced China to change its policy. Indian planners and health officials will visit China to understand its model.
In the 1970s, the Congress party paid the price after Indira Gandhi’s government implemented an aggressive family surveillance program during the 1976 Emergency. As a democracy, India ultimately chose incentives rather than coercive birth control measures.
To promote young families, the slogan “Hum Do, Hamare Do” was coined. Some states have made the two-child rule mandatory for government officials and public representatives at the panchayat level. Southern states now fear the consequences of limiting the number of households, as population-based delimitation of assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies is proposed to be implemented.
Anxiety
Bhagwat’s proposal appears to be prompted by 2011 census data, which showed a marginal decline in the Hindu population and a slight increase in the percentage of Muslims. India’s population grew by 17.7% from 2001 to 2011. The Hindu population decreased from 80.46% in 2001 to 79.8% in 2011. The Muslim population increased from 13.43% to 14.23%.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah also spoke about the decline in the Hindu population. According to the 1951 census, the population was 84% Hindu and 9.8% Muslim. The Hindu population fell to 82% in 1971 and 81% in 1991. The Muslim population rose to 11% and 12.2%. Despite this trend, fears that Muslims will outnumber Hindus are unfounded, but it is a hot political issue.
So far, most studies rely on 10 years of data from 2001 to 2011. The country’s actual population, demographic changes, and growth of religious groups will not be known until after the 2027 census.
Within 15 years, from 2011 to 2026, there has been a huge change in levels of literacy, awareness and understanding of rights. The search for education has increased across castes and communities, regardless of their socio-economic status.
Government policy has shifted from aggressive sterilization in the 1970s to the two-child campaign, and people are also voluntarily preferring smaller families. The center works to promote birth control methods. It launched a program in 2017 to reduce fertility to replacement levels by 2025.
Personal choice
Bhagwat’s interest was perhaps more focused on the declining Hindu population, even though the appeal for three children was linked to “national interest”. Many RSS followers will welcome this proposal, which they feel is necessary to build a Hindu Rashtra, with the catchphrase that “Muslims will take over India”, even though demographic data do not support this claim. Let’s wait for the 2027 census.
Bhagwat’s statement also goes against the personal choice of families in a very personal matter. Young couples, discouraged by the high costs of living, health and education, are turning to “pet parents” instead of having children.
Personal circumstances and ambitions push families to have one or two children rather than “national interest” and Hindu Rashtra. Most importantly, the nation must be prosperous, not just populated.
