NEW DELHI: June-September southwest monsoon rainfall is expected to be 90 percent of the long-period average with a model error of 4 percent, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday.
While the Northeast is likely to see normal rainfall during this monsoon season, the remaining parts of the country may see less than normal rainfall, the Met office said.
The long-term average monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm.
LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a given area for a given period of time, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period of time, usually 30 to 50 years.
“The southwest monsoon rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of mostly rain-fed agricultural areas in the country is likely to be below normal,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at the India Meteorological Department, said in a statement.
He said average rainfall over the country as a whole in June was likely to be below normal by less than 92 percent of the LPA.
If the monsoon season sees less than 90% LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as ‘deficient’.
Speaking about the onset of monsoon over Kerala, Mohapatra said it is expected to happen in the next seven days.
Typically, Kerala witnesses the onset of the southwest monsoon around June 1, which marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season in the country.
The IMD made these observations during its second southwest monsoon forecast. On April 13, the Met Office said India may witness 92 per cent LPA rainfall during this monsoon season.
The institute also said Friday that El Niño conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September.
Currently, neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions are shifting toward El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific. The onset of El Niño conditions leads to reduced monsoon rainfall in the country.
The Meteorological Department also noted that monthly temperatures are likely to be above the normal maximum in most parts of the country in June.
“During June, heat wave days are expected to be higher than normal in many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and isolated areas of Maharashtra,” Mohapatra said.
He added that the heat wave days are likely to be less than usual in Rajasthan and Jharkhand.
This article was generated from an automated news feed without any modifications to the text.
