NEW DELHI: This year’s southwest monsoon rainfall in the country is expected to be below normal, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.
India is likely to receive 80 cm of rain during the season – the average monsoon rainfall over India over a long period is 87 cm.
Speaking at a press conference, Dr Mohapatra, Director-General of the International Meteorological Department, said: “Quantitatively, monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to reach 92 per cent of LPA with a model error of ≥5 per cent.”
One reason for the lower-than-normal rainfall may be the onset of El Niño conditions, which cause less rainfall in the country.
According to the International Meteorological Institute, climate models indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to appear around June.
Currently, weak La Niña conditions are turning into neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Climate models also show that during the second half of the monsoon season, positive dipole conditions can develop in the Indian Ocean.
“A positive IOD leads to more rainfall. Therefore, we expect this to counter the El Niño effect during the second half of the monsoon season,” Dr Mohapatra said.
He also noted that compared to last year, the area of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere over the past three months was slightly below normal.
The extent of winter and spring snowfall over the Northern Hemisphere has an inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall over the country.
The IMD provides the first rainfall forecast of the monsoon season around mid-April and an updated forecast in the last week of May.
This article was generated from an automated news feed without any modifications to the text.
