A brief respite from the heat is expected in March before higher-than-normal temperatures grip most parts of the country till May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced in its monthly forecast on Saturday.
“During the March to May 2026 season, there is likely to be an above normal number of heatwave days over most parts of east and east-central India, many parts of the southeastern peninsula and some parts of northwest and west-central India during March to May 2026. A normal number of heatwave days is likely over the remaining parts of the country. During March 2026, there are likely to be above normal heatwave days over isolated areas of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. The remaining parts of the country will face normal heatwave days,” the IMD said in a statement.
For example, spatial IMD projections show higher than normal heat wave days this summer over parts of Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, parts of Uttar Pradesh and others. In these cases, heat wave days may be 3 to 15 days above normal.
Read also | Above normal heatwaves on cards in Punjab: IMD
“During the March-April-May (MAM) season, the increased probability of heatwaves may pose significant risks to public health, water resources, energy demand and basic services, particularly affecting vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, outdoor workers and individuals with pre-existing medical conditions. High temperatures can lead to heat-related illnesses and additional stress on infrastructure and resource management systems. Accordingly, state authorities and district administrations are advised to ensure timely preparedness, including operational readiness of cooling shelters.” “Adequate drinking water supply and strengthen health surveillance,” the IMD recommended.
The Meteorological Department defines a heat wave when the maximum temperature reaches 45 degrees Celsius in the plains or when the daytime temperature exceeds the normal rate by 4.5 degrees.
Read also | IMD expects nights to be warmer than usual in Maharashtra this summer
“We can say that maximum temperatures are likely to be normal in March over parts of northwest India before the high temperatures set in. We can also expect rain over the northern plains and cloud accumulation in March,” M Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department, said at a press conference.
Currently, weak La Niña conditions prevail over the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures remaining below normal in much of the central and eastern Pacific. However, the latest projections from global models and the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that these conditions are expected to gradually weaken over the coming season. “We can expect a transition to El Niño neutral conditions soon and then to El Niño,” Mohapatra said.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions persist over the Indian Ocean Basin. The latest forecast guidance from global models and the MMCFS indicates that neutral IOD conditions are expected to persist through next season, with no significant positive or negative IOD phase expected.
El Niño years usually bring weak monsoons and harsh summers to India.
Dry February
According to the Meteorological Department, there is a rainfall deficit of 59.9% from January 1 to February 28, with a deficit of 54.8% over northwest India; 89.5% shortage in eastern and northeastern India; 78.7% decrease over central India; 2.3% increase in the south of the peninsula. But it added that rainfall over India (4.2 mm) was the third lowest since 1901 and lowest since 2001. In northwest India too, rainfall was third lowest (5.9 mm), third lowest since 1901 and lowest since 2001. The long-term IMD data indicates a stark trend of declining rainfall from February 2016 onwards.
Read also | Temperatures rise in northwest India ahead of pre-monsoon season: IMD
It was also the third warmest February for northwest India, when average temperatures are taken into account, and the third warmest February for the country when night temperatures are taken into account. The average temperature in February over northwest India was 27.41°C, 1.71°C above normal. The average minimum temperature in the country was 14.76 degrees Celsius, 0.94 degrees Celsius higher than normal.
Despite extremely dry conditions in February, Mohapatra said potential rainfall over northwest India could bring temperatures down slightly in March or keep them closer to normal.
