Days after voting for 234 seats in Tamil Nadu ended, all eyes are now on Wednesday’s exit poll forecast. Tamil Nadu recorded a staggering 84.69 per cent voter turnout on April 23, the highest since independence.
As the state awaits the counting of votes on May 4, the focus is now on the post-poll forecast as there is a heated debate on whether the huge turnout indicates anti-incumbency or a wave in favor of Prime Minister M K Stalin.
Follow the latest updates on the second phase polling in Bengal
Although the full picture in Tamil Nadu will be clear next Monday, the exit polls will forecast the mood of the state and highlight the issues that came to light during the polls.
What happened in the 2021 elections?
In 2021, the Stalin-led KDP registered a landslide victory over the ruling AIADMK, witnessing a turnout of 72.78 per cent.
While the DMK won 133 seats, its ally Congress won 18 of the 25 seats it contested. The ruling AIADMK party’s number of seats has been reduced to 66 seats.
However, in the last election, voter turnout increased by more than 12 percent, partly due to the Special Intensive Review (SIR), during which 74,000 deceased, duplicate, and ineligible voters were removed.
There is also the TVK factor, which may turn the bipolar competition into a triangular conflict. It remains to be seen whether actor Vijay, who has been wooing the crowds since the launch of the party, will be able to make an impact in the two-way DMK vs AIADMK contest.
What are the opinion polls’ expectations for the 2021 elections?
Most exit poll predictions in 2021 turned out to be a reality for Tamil Nadu as the party led by MK Stalin made a spirited comeback and won nearly two-thirds of the seats, enabling it to form a government without the support of allies.
Pollsters have predicted a huge win for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu in the 2021 Assembly elections.
India Today – India axis predicted 175-195 seats for the DMK, while giving 38-54 seats to the AIADMK in the Tamil Nadu Assembly.
Chanakya today predicted 175 seats for the DMK, while it predicted 57 seats for the AIADMK. Meanwhile, the Republic-CNX voter poll results forecast the DMK getting 160-170 seats and the AIADMK 58-68 seats.
ABP CVoter gave 160-172 seats to Stalin’s party and 58-70 seats to AIADMK.
However, in 2016, most pollsters were wrong after predicting a DMK win. The election results turned out to be a massive mandate for J Jayalalithaa as she retained the state, a first for the party since 1984.
