Around 25% of 2026 FIFA World Cup matches are likely to be played in conditions with a wet globe temperature of 26°C (WBGT), a heat index that includes both temperature and humidity, or higher, raising concerns about extreme heat and player safety, new analysis has warned.
The study said that about five matches could be played at WBGT levels of 28 degrees Celsius or higher, which equates to about 38 degrees Celsius in dry heat or 30 degrees Celsius in high humidity, a threshold that global players’ union FIFPRO considers unsafe to play and advises postponement.
Wet bulb temperature combines measurements of heat and humidity to indicate how effectively the human body cools itself through sweating when outdoors. Scientists say a wet-bulb temperature of 31 to 35 degrees Celsius can be fatal to humans depending on how exposed they are.
To avoid Qatar’s extreme summer temperatures, the 2022 FIFA World Cup was held in November and December, becoming the first edition to be held at the end of the year and outside the traditional months of May, June and July. The energy-efficient cooling systems were developed after Qatar won the bid to host the 2022 World Cup, according to various reports.
The risk of these more extreme conditions has nearly doubled since the 1994 FIFA World Cup as a result of climate change, according to researchers at World Weather Attribution (WWA), a team of climate scientists and experts who focus on rapid attribution studies.
While three venues have in-arena cooling, more than a third of high-stakes matches are scheduled in venues without air conditioning, including Miami, Kansas City, New York/New Jersey and Philadelphia, according to the analysis.
The analysis reveals that players and fans face much greater risks from extreme heat and humidity at the 2026 World Cup than at the 1994 tournament on the same continent. Taking into account actual match times, scientists analyzed the likelihood that each of the 104 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches would be played in conditions that exceed basic safety guidelines set by FIFA.
About 18 matches (nearly a fifth of the total) were scheduled in outdoor stadiums with at least a 1 in 10 chance of the temperature exceeding 26°C WBGT during play. The analysis said that this includes the final match, the third place match, and the quarter-finals.
“Calculations estimating the likelihood of 2026 World Cup matches being played in high WBGT conditions are consistent with FIFPRO calculations published in 2023. These estimates justify the need for – and implementation of – a series of mitigation strategies with the aim of better protecting players’ health and performance when exposed to hot conditions,” Vincent Gottibarg, FIFPRO’s medical director, said in a statement.
Frederik Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, said: “Our research shows that climate change has a real and measurable impact on the feasibility of holding World Cups during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The 1994 World Cup may not seem particularly distant to many adults today, yet half of the human-induced climate change has occurred since then.”
She added: “That the World Cup Final – one of the biggest sporting occasions on the planet – faces the significant risk of playing in ‘cancellation level’ heat should serve as a wake-up call for FIFA and fans, highlighting the urgent need to recognize that there is no aspect of society unaffected by climate change.”
“During the 2026 World Cup, heat risks should not be judged by air temperature alone. A 30°C day in dry, breezy conditions is very different from a 30°C day with high humidity, strong sun and little wind. High humidity reduces the evaporation of sweat, limiting the body’s essential cooling mechanism. That’s why wet globe temperature, or WBGT, is so important,” Consultant Anaesthetist at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust National Health Care and Senior Clinical Lecturer. Chris Mullington at Imperial College London said.
In response to the FIFA findings, Simon Steele, UN climate change executive secretary, said on Thursday: “We must act faster to protect the game we love and everyone who watches it. This means doubling down on the crucial shift to clean energy, which could be a game-changer for people everywhere.”
