El Niño conditions are currently active over the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to intensify during the southwest monsoon season, according to the latest climate bulletin from the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO) and the International Energy Agency. India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Agencies confirm that the ocean and atmosphere are now showing clear signs of the El Niño phenomenon. Sea surface temperatures are higher than normal, and there is warmer water beneath the ocean’s surface.
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What is the El Nino phenomenon?
It is a climate pattern that develops in the tropical Pacific Ocean when sea surface temperatures become warmer than normal. This warming changes wind patterns and air pressure, which then affects weather around the world.
This occurs when the usual trade winds weaken, allowing warm water that is normally pushed toward the western Pacific to spread toward the central and eastern Pacific.
As a result, weather patterns change globally, often causing heavy rains and floods in some areas, drought in others, and sometimes higher global temperatures overall. El Niño is part of a larger system called ENSO, which also includes La Nina, the coolest phase of the cycle.
Ocean conditions
In May, the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean recorded higher than normal sea surface temperatures. A similar rise in temperatures also appeared in the western Pacific Ocean, the Maritime Continent, and parts of the ocean hemispheres.
The Indian Ocean also remained warmer than normal in both basins, including the Arabian Sea and the Arabian Sea Bay of Bengal. Compared to April, the warming has expanded to include large parts of both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, showing clear intensification.
ENSO status
The ENSO cycle has changed sharply over the past year. Conditions were neutral in mid-2025, turned La Niña from August 2025 to February, and returned to neutral in March.
This month, the Pacific Ocean became warm enough to cross the El Niño level, and warm water was also present beneath the ocean surface, especially in the eastern Pacific, according to the IMD bulletin.
Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate further strengthening between June and September, with the event likely to continue through the monsoon season.
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Indian Ocean Bipolar
The Indian Ocean dipole remains neutral after becoming stable in January 2026 after a brief negative phase in late 2025. Current model projections indicate that it will remain in this neutral state during the monsoon period. (The Indian Ocean Dipole is a climate pattern in the Indian Ocean where sea surface temperatures change between the western and eastern parts of the ocean.)
Although there is some subsurface warming in the central tropical Indian Ocean, it is not strong enough to change this phase.
Expectations
Model projections indicate continued warming in the Central Pacific from June to August, with expansion expected in the following months. El Niño conditions may intensify to moderate or strong levels during the southwest monsoon, while the Indian Ocean is expected to remain stable.
