India could face a difficult weather year in 2026, as global climate signals point to a possible return of El Niño, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Early warnings indicate that ocean temperatures in the Pacific are rising again, increasing the chance of El Niño conditions developing between May and July. Climate agencies also say the event could strengthen later in the year, raising concerns about heat, precipitation and water systems in all regions.
What is the El Nino phenomenon?
The El Niño phenomenon is a natural weather pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This change may seem small, but it disrupts wind and precipitation patterns around the world.
It is part of a larger cycle called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), which alternates between El Niño (warm phase), La Niña (cold phase) and a neutral phase.
World Meteorological Organization warning
The World Meteorological Organization says conditions are currently neutral, but models are now pointing toward a shift to El Niño in the coming months.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the beginning of the year, climate models are now in strong agreement, and there is high confidence in the emergence of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the following months,” said Wilfran Muvuma Okiya, Head of the Climate Forecasting Division at the World Meteorological Organization.
He added: “Models indicate that this could be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier represents a challenge to the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Confidence in forecasts generally improves after April.”
In simple terms, scientists are increasingly confident that El Niño will form, but the exact strength is still being tracked.
How does El Nino affect global weather?
When El Niño develops, it changes how heat and moisture move across the planet. This leads to large-scale climate shifts such as:
- Drier conditions in Australia and Indonesia.
- Rainy conditions in parts of South America and Africa.
- Average global temperatures rise.
- Changes in hurricane and tornado activity.
It does not affect all regions in the same way, but it increases extreme weather events around the world.
The World Meteorological Organization also says that during the period from May to July 2026, many regions are likely to see higher than normal temperatures, especially in North America, Europe and parts of Africa.
The World Meteorological Organization says that the El Niño phenomenon is a natural cycle, but its effects have become more severe in a warming world. The weather service says climate change does not increase the frequency of El Niño events, but it can make their effects more severe because warmer oceans and air contain more energy and moisture. This could lead to stronger heatwaves and heavy rainfall events.
Globally, 2024 was the hottest year on record, driven by a strong El Niño combined with long-term warming trends.
The impact of El Niño on India
India is particularly sensitive to the El Niño phenomenon because it directly affects the monsoon system. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already indicated that the 2026 southwest monsoon may be below normal, around 92% of the long-period average.
In India, El Niño years are often associated with:
- Weaker monsoon rainfall.
- Uneven distribution of rain.
- Longer dry periods between showers.
- Pressure on agriculture and rural income.
Since much of India’s agriculture depends on monsoon rains, even a small decrease in rainfall can have a significant economic impact.
What does El Niño mean for India in 2026?
If current forecasts hold true, India could face a mix of risks, including weak monsoon rainfall, rising temperatures and heat stress, water shortages in some areas, reduced agricultural production, and pressures on food prices and incomes in rural areas.
Himalayan snows are another cause for concern
Snow cover in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region is 27.8% below the long-term average, the lowest level ever recorded for four consecutive years, the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development reported.
This area supplies water to major rivers like the Ganges, Indus and Brahmaputra. Snow levels are important because they act as a natural store of water. When snow melts slowly, it supports rivers during dry months. Less snow means reduced summer river flows, increased risk of drought in downstream areas, and pressure on drinking water and irrigation systems.
(With inputs from Jayashree Nandy and news agency ANI.)
