Amid soaring temperatures and a severe heatwave raging across the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), on Friday (May 29), released its forecast for the second long-range phase of the southwest monsoon season.
Forecasts predict below-normal rainfall in several major regions of the country along with a warning of continued heatwave in multiple states starting June, as HT reported earlier.
Director-General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra spoke at a press conference in which he revealed that the country is expected to receive 90 per cent of the long-term average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model margin of error of four per cent – a forecast two per cent lower than the April forecast.
“We are providing the second phase update for the June-September monsoon. Quantitatively, we expect 90 per cent LPA, with a model error of 4 per cent,” he added.
Rainfall below normal
According to regional forecasts, northeastern India is set to receive normal levels of rainfall between 94 and 106 per cent of LPA. Areas expected to be affected by below-normal monsoon levels this season include central India, southern peninsular India, northwest India and the core monsoon zone.
Mohapatra also explained that rainfall is expected to remain below normal in most parts of the country in June, while some areas in northwest India, northeast India and the southern peninsula will see normal to above normal rainfall levels.
Temperatures higher than normal
With lower monsoon levels, temperatures are expected to remain above normal throughout June as well. The states of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are expected to see a higher than average number of heatwave days, while parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu are expected to lag behind.
“Maximum temperatures will be higher than normal in most parts of the country, except in parts of central, northwestern and eastern India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal,” Mohapatra revealed.
Ocean and wind
On the issue of expected oceanic conditions, Mohapatra revealed that neutral ENSO conditions are starting to shift towards El Niño with the probability of it rising to 82 per cent by June and exceeding 90 per cent by July and August. So far, rainfall levels have been recorded four per cent above normal across the country for the month of May, while cumulative monsoon rainfall through May 27 is one per cent above normal.
The southwest monsoon advanced to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands four days before its scheduled onset on May 16, and has since moved into the South Arabian Sea and Lakshwadeep. Conditions remain favorable over Kerala and northeastern states over the next week for the arrival of the southwest monsoon.
