The price of international benchmark Brent crude rose to a 45-month high of around $120 a barrel on Monday morning, jumping 64% from $72.87 a barrel before the US-Israel war with Iran 10 days ago, putting pressure on Indian gasoline and diesel refiners’ margins.
Experts said Indian refiners, especially state-run companies like Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation, should maintain petrol and diesel prices as they have reaped huge benefits from lower global oil prices without a proportionate reduction in retail prices of motor fuels. The combined net profit of the three companies increased by 192% to $57,810 crore in the first nine months of FY26 from $19,768 crore in the previous year.
Experts say that if the war does not escalate further and disrupt West Asia’s energy infrastructure, global oil prices should not exceed $120 to $130 levels. Global crude oil prices fell slightly during intraday trading on Monday. After closing on Friday at $92.69 per barrel, Brent crude oil opened at $99.75 on Monday and rose to $119.5 per barrel to fall again to $116.64 (at 10:37 AM EST), up 25.84% from Friday.
Brent crude last saw above $120 on June 8, 2022 ($123.58 per barrel) after Russia attacked Ukraine. WTI rose to $119.48 a barrel earlier on Monday. In June 2022, the prices of petrol and diesel in India $96.72 per liter and $89.62 per litre. As of mid-March 2024, petrol and diesel prices have been reduced by $2 litres, bringing retail prices down to $94.72 liters and $87.62.
Motor fuel prices have remained fairly constant since then. Gasoline price currently $94.77 liters in delhi and diesel at $87.67 due to a marginal increase of five paise on October 30, 2024, due to marketing cost adjustments.
Experts said the government may continue to protect Indian consumers from volatile global oil prices, as it has huge cuts in customs duties on petrol and diesel. Moreover, the government has unwound some of the gains from last year’s decline in global oil prices. On April 8, 2025, the government raised the special surcharge (SADAD) on petrol and diesel by $2 per liter each $34,000 crores annually. Currently, help on gasoline $13 per liter and on diesel $10 per litre.
The government often adjusts the SAED to protect consumers from the fluctuations of the international oil market. Its move to raise the SAED level on April 8, 2025, was followed by two previous rounds of tariff cuts in November 2021 and May 2022 that reduced pump prices by $13 per liter of gasoline $16 per liter diesel.
