Recent political developments involving the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) have ignited a fresh debate on the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Whether they can get close to the two-thirds majority required to pass key demarcation amendments is one of the biggest debates.
The debate gained momentum after reports of a split within the TMC and signs of rebellion among MPs belonging to the Shiv Sena (UBT). While the numbers have improved for the ruling coalition, the National Democratic Rally still falls short of the numbers required for constitutional amendments in both houses of Parliament.
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Why does a two-thirds majority matter?
Constitutional amendments require the approval of a special majority in Parliament. Earlier this year, the government introduced draft laws related to delimitation and implementation of reservation for women. But it failed to secure the required support. The proposed legislation requires a stronger parliamentary majority than the one the National Democratic Rally Party currently enjoys.
Boundary demarcation refers to the redrawing of parliamentary electoral districts on the basis of population changes. Many opposition parties, especially from south India, have raised concerns over the new demarcation exercise. They argue that demarcation could change the balance of representation in the Lok Sabha.
NDA’s current position is in Lok Sabha
According to recent parliamentary calculations, the NDA currently holds 293 seats in the 540-member House of Representatives (Lok Sabha). A two-thirds majority requires support from about 360 members.
The coalition’s strength could increase if the rebel MPs from the opposition parties support the National Democratic Rally. Reports suggest that seven MPs from the rebel TMC and six MPs from the rebel Shiv Sena Party (UBT) could support the ruling alliance. If that happens, the NDA’s strength in the Lok Sabha could rise from 293 to 316 seats. Even then, it will remain more than 40 seats short of the two-thirds mark of 360.
Rajya Sabha equation
The picture is a little different in Rajya Sabha.
The National Democratic Rally currently holds 149 seats in the Senate. In the wake of the recent Rajya Sabha elections and potential gains in the West Bengal assembly polls. The strength is expected to increase further. According to expectations, the number of coalition seats may rise to 158 seats. Since the two-thirds mark in the Rajya Sabha is 164, the NDA will be just six seats short of the required number.
This means that the NDA may be only a few seats shy of the required number in the Senate.
Why are DMK and SP being discussed
Political discussions also focused on the possibility of seeking support from the DMK and the Samajwadi Party (SP), although neither party has announced any such move.
According to reports, the DMK has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha and eight members in the Rajya Sabha. The Samajwadi Party has 37 MPs in the Lok Sabha and eight members in the Rajya Sabha. If support from these parties is achieved, the NDA’s numbers will improve significantly in both chambers. However, both scenarios remain speculation.
SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has publicly denied reports of a split in his party, while there has been no official confirmation from the DMK regarding support for the NDA.
Also read: Next Samajwadi Party split? In a shocking claim, UP minister says ‘entire SP is ready to join BJP’; Akhilesh replies
What will happen next?
For now, the discussion remains centered around parliamentary calculations rather than confirmed political realignments. The TMC insurgency and developments within the Shiv Sena (UBT) have strengthened the NDA’s position, but the alliance remains short of the numbers needed to independently push through key constitutional amendments.
The NDA’s ability to bridge this gap will depend on future political developments.
