Weather models show increasing confidence that El Niño conditions will develop in the second half of 2026.
There is a 60% chance of El Niño occurring during August, October, September and November. In January, the probability of an El Niño occurring during or after the monsoon was 50 percent, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). El Niño years usually bring weak monsoons and harsh summers to India.
The Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and in partnership with NASA GISS, reports that as of mid-February 2026, La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean have begun to decline.
The CCSR/IRI ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) plume forecast puts the probability of a La Niña at just 4% for February-April 2026, shifting the odds in favor of neutral El Niño conditions (about 96%) for the same period. Neutral El Niño remains the dominant category during March-May (90%) and April-June (65%), while El Niño probabilities are increasing rapidly during the same period, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and Columbia University’s Climate School said on February 19.
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Beginning in May and July, the odds of El Niño will become higher than neutral El Niño and remain in the range of 58% to 61%, with neutral El Niño being the second most likely outcome.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a shift from La Niña to a neutral state of the Southern Oscillation is expected in February and April 2026 (60% chance), with a neutral state of El Niño likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer.
Furthermore, the World Meteorological Organization said in its Global Seasonal Update issued on February 20 that for the March-May 2026 season, forecasts for sea surface temperature patterns indicate a transition period across the tropical Pacific. Below-average SST anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to weaken, indicating a move toward El Niño-neutral conditions as the current weak La Niña dissipates.
