Russian oil supplies to India could rise sharply, potentially doubling from January levels to account for at least 40% of India’s total imports. (Amnesty International image)
With the continued interruption of supplies from the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran war, India has intensified its purchases of Russian crude oil. In fact, compared to January levels, India’s purchases of Russian crude may actually double!Russian crude has once again taken center stage amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, as global supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz make it difficult for Middle Eastern producers to ship oil, sending prices sharply higher.
This has had a major impact on India, which depends on imports for about 90% of its crude oil needs.
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Traditionally, India has sourced most of its crude oil needs from the Middle East, especially Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, due to geographical proximity, existing contracts and reliable shipping routes.
Russian crude imports may double!
India and Russia are moving to strengthen their energy relations, with discussions being held to enable Moscow to resume direct liquefied natural gas sales to India for the first time since the conflict in Ukraine began.
According to a Reuters report, decisions on energy relations were made on March 19 in Delhi between Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin and Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri.
The two sides explored expanding crude oil trade. According to three people familiar with the deliberations, Russian oil supplies to India could rise sharply, potentially doubling from January levels to account for at least 40% of India’s total imports within about a month!After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022, Russia emerged as a major supplier, accounting for about 35-40% of India’s crude oil imports at one point.
However, by early 2026, sanctions had reduced these purchases. However, the situation changed again in March 2026 after the Donald Trump administration provided a 30-day waiver allowing purchases of Russian crude in an attempt to stabilize global oil prices. Although India never stopped importing Russian oil, the quantities fell sharply after sanctions were imposed on major Russian producers.
After Western sanctions following the Ukrainian conflict limited Russia’s access to European markets, India increased its consumption of Russian oil, due to discounted prices and compatibility with domestic refineries.Read also | Impact of US-Iran War: India’s crude oil imports from Russia are near all-time highs; Will these high numbers continue?This strategy helped reduce import costs and diversify supply sources. However, at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, India reduced its purchases of Russian crude amid trade negotiations with the US and concerns about tariffs and sanctions.
In August 2025, the United States imposed a 25% tariff tied to India’s imports of Russian oil, while sanctions on companies such as Lukoil and Rosneft restricted purchases, leading to a gradual decline in volumes.
This trend has now reversed.Kpler data indicates that India has already purchased an estimated 45 to 50 million barrels of Russian crude since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, and the actual numbers are likely to be higher as April data is still pending.
Current trends suggest March imports could reach around 1.8-2.0 million barrels per day, marking one of the strongest months since India significantly increased its purchases after the Ukraine war.
This compares to previous levels of about one million barrels per day.Historically, India’s peak monthly consumption of Russian crude has been in the range of 2.0-2.1 million barrels per day since 2022. The latest increase suggests that imports are once again approaching those previous highs, reversing the decline seen in recent months.