Even before the United States and Israel launched the strikes, Iran had a plan in place, and it was not relying solely on conventional firepower. The country is quietly preparing to turn the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies, into a strategic lever, according to sources quoted by Reuters.
Any disruption to the vital corridor immediately impacts global energy markets.The Iranian approach relies on lessons learned from the “tanker war” of the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq conflict, when attacks on ships turned the Gulf into a dangerous corridor, requiring American naval escort. Today, the country has more sophisticated and cost-effective options, including arsenals of missiles and drones capable of threatening shipping across a wide area.
The latest strikes show how quickly Iran can disrupt movement without laying mines.“Iran is stronger in terms of weaponry, and there is no way it can defeat them in a direct confrontation,” said Ali Fayez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project. Following a 12-day war last June, Tehran explored ways to extend any future conflict “in time and space.” “If Iran takes the global economy hostage, Trump will blink first,” Fayez told Reuters.
“The goal is to create economic pain.”
According to the sources, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has long prepared for a clash with Washington and Tel Aviv. The plan was activated on February 28, after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the conflict. Instead of directly confronting superior powers, Iran aims to impose economic and military pressure on the United States by targeting oil flows and striking American positions across the Gulf.“This is an asymmetric war par excellence, in which Iran achieves huge, even global, impacts through a small number of attacks that impose painful costs,” said Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute. “The goal is to create economic pain, further undermine support for the war in the United States and increase pressure on Washington to end it.”Tehran is distributing attacks across the region using low-cost drones and missiles, tactics previously carried out by proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
This decentralized “mosaic” strategy spreads command and control in order to withstand any attempt to remove Iranian leadership. Even after Khamenei’s death, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and National Security Chief Ali Larijani continue to direct operations from Tehran.Fayez criticized the US response as lacking in preparation, saying Washington failed to anticipate drone attacks, shipping disruption, and evacuation needs.
While the United States could severely weaken Iran, complete defeat would require a large-scale ground invasion involving up to a million troops, a level of commitment for which there has been little appetite.For Iran, survival is the immediate goal. Beyond that, Tehran seeks to show that coercion, whether military, economic, or diplomatic, cannot force compliance. By controlling the Strait of Hormuz and expanding the battlefield beyond its borders, Iran is betting on its ability to withstand a militarily superior opponent.
