Inflation data, US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and crude oil price movements will be the main catalysts for Indian stock markets in the coming week, analysts said.Investors will also be closely monitoring developments surrounding the proposed US-Iran agreement, foreign investor activity and trends in global markets for further guidance.“Domestically, investors will be watching the release of inflation data for May,” said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking Ltd.He added that globally, the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision will be the most important event.US President Donald Trump said that an agreement to end the war with Iran will be signed on Sunday and that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will be “open to everyone” immediately afterward.At the same time, Trump kept the door open to the possibility of new attacks if the agreement was not implemented as expected.
US-Iranian developments in the spotlight
Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the proposed US-Iran agreement, according to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Any progress in the deal may have implications for global oil prices and risk sentiment in the markets.“Markets are likely to remain very sensitive to developments surrounding the proposed US-Iran agreement,” the agency quoted Ponmudi R as saying.
Fed decision, key drivers of inflation data
Aside from local inflation data, investors will closely track the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 16-17.“Another major event on investors’ radar is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026.
Pravesh Gaur, chief technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said market participants will closely monitor the Fed’s comments, inflation expectations, economic growth outlook and indicators related to future interest rate cuts.Gaur added that the progress of the monsoon season and inflation trends will remain important local indicators.
Foreign outflows remain a concern
Foreign investors continued to reduce their exposure to Indian stocks, selling shares worth over Rs 62,853 crore during the first half of June.According to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data, total Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) inflows from Indian equities have reached Rs 2.87 lakh crore so far in 2026, exceeding Rs 1.66 lakh crore withdrawn during the entire year of 2025.
Crude oil trends are crucial for India
Analysts said that the recent correction in crude oil prices following expectations of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran may support market sentiment in India.“The recent geopolitical developments, which everyone expects will lead to a peace deal between the US and Iran, have led to a sharp correction in the price of Brent crude. For a major oil importer like India, this is a big positive,” said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments Limited.These expectations come after a strong week for local stocks. The BSE Sensex rose 1,284.61 points, or 1.73%, while the NSE Nifty advanced 256.2 points, or 1%, last week.