When Tamil Nadu Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay faces a vote of confidence for his government that includes TVK plus five allies on Wednesday, the outcome will matter far beyond whether his rule lasts more than three days. The vote has become the scene of another major drama, over whether the AIADMK, once the dominant force in Tamil Nadu politics, will hold together or crack just weeks after its worst electoral performance in decades.
How is the political landscape in Tamil Nadu positioned?
Vijay’s Tamil Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) party won 108 seats in the April 23 Assembly elections, the results of which came in on May 4 – an impressive start for a party that is only two years old. But 108 votes are short of the required number of 118 to obtain a majority in the 234-seat council. Vijay formed the government with the support of the Congress, VCK, CPI and CPM, as well as the IUML, all allies of the DMK who switched sides when the incumbent party finished second.
On paper, the coalition gives him enough numbers.
But Vijay was getting an additional source of support and courting him from an unexpected angle, from a rebel faction within the AIADMK. This faction led by senior leaders C Ve Shanmugam and SP Velumani claims to have around 30 of the 47 MLAs in the party.
On Tuesday, Vijay visited Shanmugam’s residence in Chennai where the group formally extended its support to the TVK government, but the rebel count remains fraught. This will be important for their immediate future.
Shanmugam spoke of the rebellion as a “new life” for the party that has been in free fall since the death of Jay Jayalalithaa in 2016. He said the “Amma rule” should return, referring to Jayalalithaa, a film star turned politician like Vijay. He said supporting TVK was the right path for that new life.
The still-formal AIADMK, led by general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), has reacted forcefully by threatening the presence of the MLAs. Senior EPS faction leader Agri SS Krishnamurthy announced at a press conference on Tuesday evening that the party’s official position is to “vote against the confidence motion tomorrow (May 13)”. All MLAs affiliated with the parties have been formally instructed to follow the directions, he added. This is called a party whip, in legal terms.
On the issue of crossing any MLA, Krishnamurthy said: “Legal action will be taken.”
How can division occur?
OS Manian, speaking on behalf of the EPS camp, denied all talk of a split, asserting that the 47 MLAs had already submitted a signed document to the Assembly Speaker confirming EPS as the leader of the legislative party. He added that the rebels are “spreading a bag of lies” after “failing to achieve victories in their areas.” He alleged that they were doing this to get ministerial positions in the Vijay government.
The rebel camp claims that the EPS was open to supporting the DMK-backed arrangement to keep TVK out of power. He said that this directly contradicts the founding principles of the party. The official AIADMK denied this, calling it a fabricated rumor to justify the defection.
And the association’s newly elected president, TVK’s JC D Prabhakar, sits at the heart of everything that comes next. The AIADMK official noted with annoyance that the speaker allowed Velumani to address the house after Palaniswami. The Speaker of Parliament is also the authority that will decide any disqualification petitions submitted after Wednesday’s vote.
What the law says, what history shows
The anti-defection law deprives any MLA who votes against the party whip. But there is a crucial escape route. If at least two-thirds of the members of the legislature vote together, it may be treated as a merger and members may be protected from disqualification.
For the AIADMK rebels, two-thirds of the 47 is 32. They claim to have 30 at the moment.
This type of scenario depends on whether the threshold is met.
Recently, under the leadership of Raghav Chadha, seven of the AAP’s ten Rajya Sabha MPs switched to the BJP using the two-thirds argument.
On the other hand, the 2024 elections, which will be governed by Congress, showed what happens when the numbers are low. Six Congress MLAs defied their party whip in the budget vote. The total number was 40, not close to two-thirds. Speaker eliminated all six on the same day.
The third route of resignation rather than defection was used in Madhya Pradesh in 2020, when 22 Congress MLAs loyal to Jyotiraditya Scindia resigned from their seats rather than vote against the whip, avoiding the anti-defection law and bringing down the government of Congress veteran Kamal Nath in the process.
What he decides Wednesday
If the rebel AIADMK MLAs vote with Vijay and their number reaches or crosses 32, they will have a credible legal case to protect the merger.
Vijay will emerge with a vastly more comfortable majority, less dependent on any single coalition partner.
The AIADMK will effectively split into two effective factions, with consequences that will last beyond this Assembly term.
If the rebels fail or change their minds, Vijay may win a vote of confidence based on the strength of his current coalition, but the rebels’ lifeline proves empty.
The AIADMK entered these elections already weak, winning only 47 of the 164 seats it contested.
AIADMK’s many cracks
The AIADMK has been fractured almost continuously since Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016.
Within weeks, her aide VK Sasikala was appointed general secretary, but O Panneerselvam publicly rebelled, saying he was forced to resign under pressure. Sasikala expelled him, splitting the party into two factions. Sasikala’s bid for CM collapsed when the Supreme Court upheld her conviction in the disproportionate assets case, and she went to jail. Edappadi K Palaniswami or EPS has become the leader of the legislative party. EPS and OPS eventually merged their factions, but EPS expelled OPS later in 2022. OPS is now with the DMK.
The current rebellion, in this sense, is not an aberration. It is the final chapter in the AIADMK’s post-Amma script.
