For Congress, the exit poll projections released on Wednesday evening in four states and the UT tell a story of regions voting very differently across India. In the southern states, the party appears headed for its most significant electoral rebound in years – with Kerala poised to hand it government, and Tamil Nadu strengthening its position as a partner of the DMK. However, Puducherry is not pretty for the DMK-Congress.
To the north and east, in Assam and West Bengal, the numbers tell a bleaker story, where the Congress remains a distant second at best, and almost insignificant at worst.
Expectations are that Kerala will turn to the Kong-led United Democratic Front
The notable figure for Congress is Kerala.
Three major agencies that have released their forecasts have agreed that the Congress-led United Democratic Front is set to return to power, ending Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s bid for an unprecedented third consecutive term for the Left Democratic Front.
The India Axis has the most optimistic forecast for the United Democratic Front, giving it 78-90 seats in the 140-member assembly. People’s Pulse forecasts the alliance at 75-85, while Matrez is the most conservative of the three at 70-75. However, all three place the UDF comfortably above the majority mark of 71.
The LDF is expected to get 55-65 seats in these three agencies. That would be a significant drop from its 99 seats in 2021.
The BJP-led NDA, despite investing heavily in the state and fielding former Union minister Rajiv Chandrasekhar as its main face, is expected to get just 0-5 seats across agencies. Five, though odd, would be a big number for the BJP. I drew a blank last time.
Kerala recorded a voter turnout of 78.23 per cent on April 9 – the highest in the state since 1987 – and the surge appears to have been skewed in favor of the United Democratic Front, if exit polls are correct.
Congress leader V D Sathisan is the front-runner to become chief minister if Congress indeed wins on May 4.
Tamil Nadu: Comfortable playing the second fiddle
In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is part of the DMK-led secular progressive alliance, which all agencies expect will return to power comfortably.
Matriz gives the DMK+ alliance 122-132 seats, while People’s Pulse puts it higher at 125-145 seats. The majority score is 118.
The Congress party’s tally within the alliance has not been released separately by pollsters yet, but the party contested in about two dozen seats.
The DMK’s victory strengthens the southern wing of the Congress party and keeps the most reliable state-level partnership in the India bloc intact. For the party’s national leadership, Stalin’s second term is almost as good as a Congress government – it keeps the BJP out of Tamil Nadu for another five years.
In Puducherry, where largely the same parties are competing, exit polls give the NDA a clear advantage in the 30-seat UT Assembly, with People’s Pulse predicting the ruling NDA will get 15-19 seats, while AccessMy India expects it to get 16-20 seats.
AINRC’s N Rangaswamy, who is contesting from both Thattanchavady and Mangalam, is well placed for a fifth term as chief minister as a reliable senior partner of the BJP in Puducherry.
The Congress-DMK alliance is expected to get 6-11 seats across agencies — a modest improvement from 2021, but well short of the 16-seat majority mark.
Assam: A distant moment amid the rise of Hindutva
The news is considerably less cheerful as one moves northeast.
In Assam, where the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led regime is eyeing a third term for the BJP-led NDA, the Congress is expected to be unable to mount any challenge.
Axis My India gives Congress 24-36 seats to NDA’s 88-100 out of 126. Matrez predicts Congress 25-32, Peoples Pulse 22-26 – all against an NDA tally of 68-100 depending on the agency; In all cases above the majority mark of 64.
The Congress has been pinning its hopes on Gaurav Gogoi – son of late former chief minister Tarun Gogoi – as a generational reset for the party’s campaign.
Bengal: Close to insignificance
If Assam is a disappointment, West Bengal is anathema to the Congress.
Across all the four agencies that have issued Bengal forecasts, the Congress is not expected to win a single seat or be awarded a maximum of 3-5. People’s Pulse gave Congress a 1-3, Poll Diary projects a 3-5, while Matrize and P-Marq put the score at zero.
The battle in Bengal has, by all available evidence, been reduced to a direct fight between the TMC and the BJP, with the Congress and the Left Front virtually eliminated.
The irony here is that the exit polls for Bengal are very divided. People’s Pulse predicts a landslide victory for TMC by 177-187, while Matrize, P-Marq and Poll Diary give the BJP a slim majority. In either scenario, Congress will not be present on the scene, as it has chosen to ally itself neither with the Left nor with the TMC.
