The battle for power in West Bengal appears to be close, with exit polls showing the BJP winning narrowly in 294 assembly constituencies. To form a government, the party or coalition needs to exceed the majority mark of 148 seats.
According to the opinion poll MatrizThe TMC+ is expected to win 125-140 seats, while the BJP is expected to get 146-161 seats, indicating a close race for the reins of the state. Other parties are expected to get 6-10 seats.
Also according to P-Marq, the BJP is expected to take the lead with 150-175 seats, while the TMC is expected to get 118-138 seats. Other parties are expected to win between 2 and 6 seats, indicating that the BJP is ahead in its forecasts.
However, People’s Pulse poll projections paint a contrasting picture, giving the TMC alliance a decisive advantage of 177-187 seats, while the BJP is expected to win 95-110 seats.
If these expectations translate into the final results on May 4, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year rule in the state may end. Track exit poll forecasts live updates.
Two-stage poll, reports mixed
Voting for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections was held in two phases – on April 23 and 29. The second and final stage covered 142 seats distributed over seven provinces.
While the first phase saw reports of violence and vandalism from parts of the state soon after the start of polling, the final phase was described as largely peaceful, marking a calmer end to the electoral process.
Lessons from 2021: Expectations versus reality
A look back at the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections shows how different exit poll predictions are – and how they don’t always match the final result.
CVoter predicted a comfortable win for the TMC in 158 seats, while the BJP estimated it at 115 seats. In contrast, the Republic-CNX poll gave the BJP an edge in 143 seats and put the TMC in 133 seats.
Axis My India has signaled a tougher contest, suggesting the TMC could win between 130 and 156 seats, and the BJP between 134 and 160 seats – leaving open the possibility of either party crossing the 148-seat majority mark.
When the votes were finally counted, the results told a very different story. The TMC swept the elections by winning 215 seats, while the BJP was limited to 77 constituencies.
What the polls indicate
Exit polls are essentially estimates based on voter feedback collected immediately after their ballots are cast. They aim to capture voting trends and provide an early idea of the likely outcome.
However, these forecasts are not final. The actual results will not be known until after the votes are counted on May 4.
